GoTo has now reported a net profit for three quarters in a row. Read past the headline, though, and the numbers show a company run by its payments arm, while its ride-hailing business absorbs the cost of a government-imposed fare squeeze.
GoTo reported a third-quarter net profit of Rp441 billion (about US$24.6 million), compared with a net loss of Rp255 billion (US$14.2 million) a year earlier.
Net revenue rose 17 per cent to Rp5.6 trillion (US$313 million). Group adjusted EBITDA jumped 84 per cent to Rp950 billion (US$53 million), and GoTo raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to Rp3.5-3.7 trillion (US$196-207 million), up from Rp3.2-3.4 trillion.
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CEO Hans Patuwo did not downplay the context. It was the first full quarter since the 8 per cent commission cap on GoRide took effect, and he said, “the impact has been significant.”
The 89 per cent growth is almost all GoPay
GoTo’s most striking number, an 89 per cent jump in core gross transaction value (GTV) to Rp194 trillion (US$10.8 billion), is mostly a payments figure. GoPay accounted for Rp187 trillion of that total, up 96 per cent.
The on-demand business that made Gojek a household name grew GTV by just 1 per cent, to Rp16.9 trillion (US$944 million).
Profitability follows the same pattern. Fintech adjusted EBITDA rose 304 per cent to Rp550 billion (US$30.7 million) on net revenue that grew 49 per cent to Rp2.3 trillion. On-demand services (ODS) managed Rp347 billion (US$19.4 million), up 3 per cent. Fintech now produces nearly three-fifths of the group’s adjusted EBITDA.
That continues the trend from the first quarter, when the fintech unit was already doing the heavy lifting. Six months later, the gap between the two halves of the company has widened.
The commission cap bites where it was meant to
The cost of Indonesia’s new rules shows up in mobility. Mobility net revenue fell 5 per cent to Rp757 billion. Segment adjusted EBITDA dropped 16 per cent to Rp159 billion (US$8.9 million), and margin slipped 50 basis points to 2.5 per cent.
GoTo puts the cap’s direct cost at roughly Rp150 billion (US$8.4 million) for the quarter, in line with its Rp300 billion full-year estimate. GoRide went EBITDA-negative in July. The company says it is now trending towards break-even, but it has not said when it will get there.
Gojek’s response has been to chase volume rather than value. Completed mobility orders rose 10 per cent, driven by mass-market products with lower ticket prices, while mobility GTV did not grow at all. In plain terms, drivers are completing more trips that are each worth less.
The politics behind those numbers are now formal. A Presidential Regulation released this month locks in the 8 per cent cap on two-wheel transport and classifies driver-partners as micro-entrepreneurs, not employees. That gives drivers a bigger share of each fare but stops short of the labour protections that employment would bring.
GoTo points to its Partner Appreciation Program, which ranges from BPJS health and employment cover to scholarships and fully funded Umrah pilgrimages. These are welcome benefits, but they are discretionary and can be withdrawn, unlike rights under labour law.
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Delivery is the next uncertainty. GoTo is still waiting for implementing regulations from the Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, and it has widened its ODS guidance to Rp1.4-1.6 trillion to allow for them. Delivery performed better this quarter: adjusted EBITDA rose 20 per cent to Rp227 billion and margin improved to 2.1 per cent. Investors will be watching whether regulators extend similar pressure to food delivery.
A bigger loan book and a quiet admission
GoPay’s strength depends increasingly on lending. Loans outstanding rose 51 per cent to Rp12 trillion (US$670 million). Monthly transacting users grew 26 per cent to 30.4 million, while transactions grew 86 per cent to 2.8 billion.
The firm’s press release also contains a carefully worded admission. GoTo says it “pre-emptively tightened credit” for its highest-risk cohorts in the second quarter, which “limited the deterioration in credit quality” in the third. That means credit quality did get worse. As in previous quarters, GoTo has not disclosed non-performing loan ratios or delinquency figures. It argues that short loan tenors let it adjust underwriting quickly, but the market still has no data with which to check that claim.
The bottom line also needs some unpacking. Operating income was Rp351 billion, below reported net profit, so items below the operating line helped. Profit attributable to owners of the parent was higher still, at Rp557 billion (US$31.1 million). These figures are cleaner than the adjusted measures that drew scrutiny a year ago, but net profit is not yet driven mainly by operations.
Buying back stock at half the old floor
The capital-return story may tell investors the most. After the Indonesia Stock Exchange removed the Rp50 floor price on 28 September, GoTo spent Rp985 billion (US$55 million) buying back 36 billion shares, almost 3 per cent of its stock, by 29 October. That works out to an average of about Rp27 per share, roughly half the old floor and a fraction of the Rp338 IPO price.
GoTo will also cancel 32 billion treasury shares, about 2.7 per cent of shares outstanding, as approved at its 14 October extraordinary general meeting. It still has Rp2.5 trillion (US$140 million) available under a buyback authorisation that runs until June 2027.
Adjusted free cash flow of Rp1.2 trillion (US$67.5 million) means GoTo can afford the programme. Still, the fact that its stock is trading well below the old floor shows how little confidence the market currently has in the business, despite three profitable quarters.
The neighbours, and the merger nobody has ruled out
The competitive picture is not getting easier. Grab is moving deeper into credit through its Atome deal and its takeover of Superbank in Indonesia, putting it in direct competition with GoPay’s most profitable activity. ShopeePay remains a formidable rival in payments. On the streets of Jakarta, VinFast’s Green SM is challenging the gojek economy with e-scooters, at a time when the commission cap has made two-wheel rides less profitable for every platform.
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Grab faces its own questions. Its recent profit headline concealed cash burn in key areas, and the long-running prospect of a Grab-GoTo merger still hangs over both companies. A regulator that sets ride-hailing commissions is also likely to shape any deal between Indonesia’s two largest platforms.
Meanwhile, GoTo is investing in technology. Its 27-billion-parameter model that speaks Batak is a sign of ambition, though AI has yet to appear clearly in the margins.
What three quarters prove, and what they don’t
Three consecutive profitable quarters show that GoTo is no longer the cash-burning conglomerate investors once worried about. They do not yet show that Gojek can be a strong business under Indonesia’s new rules.
At the moment, GoTo is effectively a lending and payments company with a ride-hailing app on top. That can be a sound business model, but it carries more credit risk than the brand suggests. The next test is how GoTo handles a regulator that has already capped one of its revenue lines and may soon reach another.
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