Daniel Kokotajlo used to lead research at OpenAI, thinking several years ahead. He left in 2023 and gave up a chunk of equity/money to do it because he didn’t want to sign away his right to talk about what he was seeing. Since then, he’s built out some of the more detailed public forecasts of where AI is headed, and people in the field take him seriously, not because he’s dramatic, but because he isn’t.
So when he told an interviewer recently that he and his wife decided not to have any more kids, it landed differently than it would from someone hyping a headline. His forecasts, he said, had “collapsed toward the present.” Too uncertain. He doesn’t expect his six-year-old daughter to ever join a traditional workforce.
I’m not writing this to argue whether he’s right about the timeline. Reasonable people in AI disagree hard on the specifics; some think 2027 is absurdly aggressive, some think it’s conservative. That’s not the interesting part.
The interesting part is that someone with more visibility into this than almost anyone, when it came down to planning his own family’s life, didn’t hedge with optimism. He priced in the uncertainty and made a real decision around it. That’s a different thing than doomscrolling about AI. That’s someone treating an unstable variable like an unstable variable, instead of pretending it’ll sort itself out because it always has before.
Now zoom out to where I actually spend my time, which is talking to founders, funds, and increasingly, final-year students across Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, who are a few months from graduating into whatever the job market turns out to be.
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Nobody’s telling them the plan might not hold. Universities are still building curricula around stable career ladders. Parents are still saying, “Finish your degree, get placed, climb”. Job boards are still structured like 2015. Meanwhile, the entry-level roles that used to be the first rung, junior analyst, junior dev, first line support, are the exact roles AI tools are already eating fastest, because they’re the most repeatable, most pattern-based work in any organisation.
That’s not a hot take; that’s just what’s happening quarter over quarter. The uncertainty Kokotajlo is pricing into his family planning is the same uncertainty sitting underneath every “get a good job” conversation happening in a Vietnamese household right now. Nobody’s saying it out loud. The gap between what these systems assume and what’s actually shifting keeps growing, and almost nobody’s naming it directly to the 22-year-olds who are about to walk straight into it.
Here’s where I’d push back on the doom version of this story, though, because I don’t think the answer is fear, and I don’t think it’s “learn to code” either; that ship’s more complicated than it was five years ago.
What I’ve noticed talking to students across the region who seem the least anxious about this isn’t that they’re smarter or more technical than everyone else. It’s that they’ve stopped treating “get hired by one company” as the whole plan. They’ve got a small portfolio of things they can point to, a project, a client, a certificate that proves they actually did something rather than just sat through a syllabus. They’re building proof of work before anyone’s paying them for it. They think in terms of what they can do, not what title they’re hoping to get.
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That’s not a hack, and it’s not new either; honestly, it’s closer to how things worked before large stable companies existed, when people had trades and reputations instead of resumes. What’s new is how early you need to start building that muscle now, because the old runway, degree, then job, then promotion, is getting shorter every year, not longer.
I don’t think Kokotajlo’s daughter’s future is as bleak as the framing sounds. Six-year-olds have a long runway to figure out a very different world. Final-year students don’t have that same runway. They’re standing at the door right now.
So if even the people closest to how fast this is moving are hedging their own kids’ futures instead of assuming business as usual, that’s worth sitting with for a second before you finish your final semester assuming the plan you were handed still holds.
The students I talk to who aren’t waiting around for that plan to confirm itself aren’t scared. They’re just already building something of their own.
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