The digital asset market has fallen by 2.57 per cent to US$2.86T over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, the largest token by market value, dropped 2.81 per cent to US$84,261.32 during the same period. The total crypto market cap declined 2.92 per cent, and Bitcoin’s move closely tracked that broader drop. The data shows a 96 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and a 94 per cent correlation with Gold. Those numbers confirm that this move is not unique to crypto. Traditional markets and digital assets are responding to the same set of pressures.
Bitcoin’s drop triggered a leverage flush that cascaded into altcoins. Overbought conditions and a surge in derivatives open interest then amplified the pullback. The near-term outlook depends on whether Bitcoin holds above the US$2.76T market cap support, which sits near the 50 per cent Fibonacci level. A hold could open a rebound toward US$2.94T. A break below could extend losses toward US$2.65T.
The primary driver is macroeconomic. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike and hawkish commentary fuelled concerns about further monetary tightening. At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged toward five per cent, its highest level since 2007. That move tightened financial conditions across the board. Strong US PMI data on September 23 reinforced expectations of persistent inflation and higher-for-longer rates.
As liquidity becomes less abundant, investors reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets. Bitcoin behaved exactly like a risk asset in this environment. It sold off alongside traditional markets as participants priced in less liquidity. This macro backdrop matters because Bitcoin and other digital assets trade as long-duration risk assets.
When rates rise, the present value of future cash flows falls. Crypto does not have cash flows, but it still competes for capital. Higher yields make bonds more attractive. That shift reduces demand for speculative assets. The key items to watch are further statements from Fed officials and any movement in the 10-year yield. If that yield remains above 5 per cent, the pressure on risk assets could continue.
Also Read: Bitcoin’s US$87,000 spike: Real breakout or a US$900 million short squeeze?
A second force turned a measured decline into a violent flush. The initial macro-driven drop triggered a liquidation cascade. Data shows traders liquidated US$237 million in leveraged long positions in a single hour as Bitcoin broke below US$84,000. Over 24h, total Bitcoin long liquidations reached US$171 million.
Another measure shows US$158.95M in BTC long liquidations in 24h, a 243 per cent spike. Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.12 per cent as traders exited altcoin positions. This is a classic deleveraging event. Forced selling by overleveraged bulls accelerated the downward move, a typical sign of a crowded bullish trade unwinding. The scale of liquidations shows how crowded the long side had become.
A single hour produced US$237 million in long liquidations. The 24h total for Bitcoin longs reached US$171 million. The US$158.95M figure and 243 per cent spike confirm the same pattern. A stabilisation in funding rates and open interest would signal that the market has flushed out leverage. Until then, high liquidation volumes could point to further weakness.
The pain spread well beyond Bitcoin. Major altcoins underperformed the broader market. Avalanche fell 8.38 per cent, and Filecoin dropped 10.71 per cent. Both assets had enjoyed strong weekly rallies, with Avalanche up 36 per cent. That strength invited profit-taking.
The seven-day RSI for the total market hit an overbought 80.24. Traders rotated out of recently high-performing assets and into stablecoins or large caps. This rotation amplified the sell-off. Total open interest rose 11.13 per cent to US$493.14B even as prices fell. That combination indicates lingering leveraged positions that could fuel more volatility.
Avalanche and Filecoin had rallied hard. Avalanche gained 36 per cent in a week. That move left the market vulnerable. The 7-day RSI at 80.24 signalled overbought conditions. Profit-taking followed. Rotation into stablecoins or large caps is a defensive response. Sector rotation into stablecoins or large caps could continue if fear persists.
Also Read: Why did Bitcoin and Ethereum move in near-perfect lockstep after the Fed rate hike?
The near-term technical picture for Bitcoin now sits at a critical point. Bitcoin is testing the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$84,432 after a rejection at the US$87,363 swing high. The structure remains corrective within a broader weekly uptrend of 10.56 per cent.
If Bitcoin holds above the US$84,000 support, it could retest US$87,000. A daily close below the US$82,000 to US$84,000 support band would shift focus toward the 38.2 per cent to 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement zone between US$79,600 and US$82,600. A deeper correction could reach the US$79,600-US$81,100 range. The US$84,432 level is the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement. The rejection at the US$87,363 swing high set up the test.
The weekly uptrend remains positive at 10.56 per cent. A hold above US$84,000 keeps the US$87,000 retest in play. A close below US$82,000 to US$84,000 opens US$79,600 to US$82,600. The deeper zone is US$79,600 to US$81,100. The market will watch whether Bitcoin can absorb selling pressure and defend this zone.
The total crypto market cap faces a similar test. The key level is the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$2.76T. A hold above this support could lead to a rebound toward US$2.94T. A break below could extend losses toward US$2.65T. The pivot point sits at US$2.86T. Rising open interest alongside falling prices suggests that leveraged positions remain in the system.
The next 24h close relative to US$2.76T will matter. So will any shifts in spot ETF flow data. A rebound above the pivot at US$2.86T could target the recent high of US$2.94T. The 50 per cent Fibonacci at US$2.76T is the line. A rebound above the US$2.86T pivot could target US$2.94T. A break below US$2.76T could send the market to US$2.65T. Open interest at US$493.14B, up 11.13 per cent, shows leverage remains. ETF flow data is the next input.
My view is that this is a corrective pullback, not a reversal of Bitcoin’s strong weekly trend. The downturn has multiple drivers. Bitcoin liquidations started it. Altcoin profit-taking after a strong week worsened. The high correlation with traditional assets points to a macro-sensitive environment. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain connected to global interest rates and liquidity cycles.
For now, the evidence favours a liquidity-driven pullback, amplified by excessive leverage, rather than a change in the longer-term trend. Let’s see.
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