The narrative guiding Southeast Asia’s tech investment was profoundly revised during 2023-2024, according to a new Cento Ventures report. The narrative moved decisively away from broad, consumer-led growth models towards the dominant and resilient story of digital financial services (DFS).

Since Indonesia’s valuations peaked in early 2022, investors have cycled through various competing regional growth stories, most of which failed to materialise under closer scrutiny.

Also Read: SEA funding wiped out: Back to 2016 levels after historic slump

Two prominent narratives were tested and found wanting:

• Vietnam as the “next China”: This theory lost significant momentum as political shifts throughout 2023 and 2024 dampened investor confidence.
• The Philippines as the “next Indonesia”: This thesis came under scrutiny after closer analysis of Indonesian middle-class economics cast doubt on the long-term sustainability of consumer-led investment strategies, especially following failed Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of large consumer companies.

These proposed growth stories relied heavily on assumptions of robust consumer spending, which ultimately proved less resilient than investors had initially anticipated.

The retreat from Indonesia and rise of the Philippines

The narrative shift has significantly impacted capital allocation across Southeast Asia’s key markets. Notably, Indonesia, long seen as the region’s scale driver, has received less than its “fair share” of investment in the regional digital economy since the second half of 2023. Funds previously explicitly raised for “consumer story” ventures in the archipelago are now shifting away from tech investments and moving towards mid-cap private equity-style investments, such as F&B chains.

In stark contrast, the Philippines has re-emerged as a key investment destination, propelled by the new dominant story of digital financial services. The country’s environment–characterised by a unique combination of light-touch regulation and significant financial disparities–has acted as a catalyst, accelerating its financial sector forward.

This shift has been evidenced by major capital injections into digital banking competitors, with companies such as Salmon, UNO Digital Bank, Mynt, and PayMaya all securing substantial funding in 2024.

While receding in overall VC investment share, Indonesia continues to provide critical scale for digital lenders that are experimenting with different operational models, both with and without established bank charters.

The super-app thesis abandoned

A major strategic pivot across leading digital platforms in 2024 confirmed the death of another growth narrative: the “super-app” model. Most digital platforms have officially abandoned the multi-vertical “super-app” thesis to concentrate on originating and distributing financial services.

The era of non-digital financial services super-apps was officially deemed over by 2022. This strategic refinement means that digital finance has become the key driver of profitability announcements across the region’s leading platforms throughout 2024. The concept of multi-vertical (or diversified services) accounted for US$866 million of capital invested in 2023–2024, representing 13 per cent of the top five sectors.

Business automation and exit resilience

Beyond the DFS dominance, another sector showing a burst of activity is business automation. While financial services captured 48 per cent of total capital invested in the top five sectors in 2023-2024 (US$3.3 billion), business automation accounted for US$507 million, or 7 per cent.

Also Read: When debt replaces equity: How SEA startups mask a funding winter

The spike in investment into business automation reflects a surge of experimentation with hybrid B2B marketplace plus SaaS business models across a variety of industries. However, the capital invested in business automation is back to its baseline after a brief B2B marketplace-driven spike.

Regarding exits, the ecosystem is still reeling from exposed instances of fraud and financial mismanagement across various companies. While the overall recovery remains a work in progress, more minor mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are still occurring. The market generally does not clear for significant acquisitions until founders and late-stage investors reach a point of desperation due to misaligned expectations.

A notable exception in early 2024 was the Tokopedia-ByteDance sale, which occurred under significant regulatory pressure. Despite these challenges, median exit valuations saw a substantial increase in 2024 compared to 2022, suggesting that strong, albeit smaller, exits are still being achieved.

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Many midlife professionals and creators have decades of ideas and experiences worth sharing. But turning those insights into content that markets their skills often feels overwhelming.

Writing feels stressful. Video production feels too technical. The result? Great ideas stay private, while social media feeds remain empty.

A real case: An artist and a dusty window

I was speaking with an artist friend in his late fifties. He described a striking moment: rain and dust forming patterns on an old window, like nature painting its own artwork. His explanation was vivid, but he dreaded writing it into an artist statement.

So I opened ChatGPT, tapped the microphone, and asked it to simply talk. Within minutes, AI transformed his spoken words into a polished artist statement, even producing a Chinese version.

Then I told him: This is not just your statement. This is your Facebook post. This is your Instagram caption. This is how you promote your art and your story online.

From idea to content pipeline

We pushed further. I asked ChatGPT to generate a short script for a video presentation of his concept. With CapCut, I combined the script and visuals. By the end of the afternoon, his inspiration had turned into:

• A professional artist statement
• A ready-to-publish social media post
• A short video for showcasing his work

This is the power of AI when you use it as a content pipeline. One idea, expressed once, becomes multiple marketing assets.

Don’t get stuck in fear

His first reaction was one many midlifers share: “If AI can do this, won’t it replace copywriters, marketers, or even me?”

This fear is driven by headlines and rumours, focusing on replacement instead of opportunity. The truth is simple:

• AI cannot create meaning without human input.
• It needs your ideas, your perspective, your story.
• What it offers is speed, scale, and structure.

Also Read: AI adoption evolves: Knowledge, confidence, and code creation soar

Instead of fearing replacement, midlifers should focus on innovation and leverage.

Why this matters for midlife professionals

In today’s market, visibility matters. Whether you’re an artist, consultant, or small business owner, social media is your storefront. AI gives you the ability to:

• Publish consistently without the stress of blank pages.
• Repurpose content across text, video, and multiple languages.
• Promote your skills skillfully by amplifying your unique voice.

For midlifers exploring a second act, this means you don’t need to wait for a marketing team or expensive campaigns. You can start today, with tools that are already available.

Final thought

AI won’t replace human creativity. But it is already replacing the excuses that keep ideas hidden.

Midlife professionals who open up, experiment, and use these tools will find themselves ahead: more visible, more agile, and more skillful in promoting what they do best.

The real risk is not AI itself — it’s refusing to explore what’s already possible.

Clarity in the Age of AI is about shifting from fear to leverage. Your next idea could already be tomorrow’s marketing campaign, if you let AI help you shape it.

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Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. Share your opinion by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic.

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The Singapore Institute of Technology (SIT) has inaugurated the SIT x NVIDIA AI Centre (SNAIC) at its Punggol Campus, positioning the facility as a central hub for innovation and talent development focused on applied artificial intelligence (AI).

The centre aims to foster cross-sector and cross-border collaboration through symbolic partnerships with major industry and academic players.

The SNAIC joint venture aims to accelerate AI adoption across the broader ecosystem via applied research collaboration. It seeks to nurture a robust pipeline of AI talent to support Singapore’s national AI strategy and its strategic goal of tripling the national AI workforce.

Also Read: Talents remain an issue in AI proliferation, but here are 6 steps that businesses can do to tackle it

The facility already hosts 19 industry doctorate and industry master’s (ID/IM) students pursuing studies through industry-applied research projects. These students work alongside full-time research engineers and experts from NVIDIA and SIT.

Strengthening Singapore’s talent pipeline

A key initiative launched alongside the centre is the SNAIC AI Programme, developed in collaboration with the Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA). This six-month programme, supported under the TechSkills Accelerator (TeSA) national initiative, aims to train over 200 AI practitioners, including fresh graduates and mid-career professionals, within the next three years.

The curriculum is split into two phases: two months of intensive AI training covering modules developed by SNAIC, including cutting-edge skills like Generative AI, Large Language Models (LLMs), Retrieval-Augmentation Generation, and Agentic AI. This is followed by four months of hands-on projects with industry partners, allowing participants to solve real-world business challenges using AI under expert supervision.

Kiren Kumar, Deputy Chief Executive of IMDA, said: “Through IMDA’s TeSA initiative, we are building Singapore’s AI talent pipeline by combining the best of industry expertise and academic excellence. With SIT-recognised certifications, and hands-on experience provided through leading company partnerships, our learners will graduate ready to tackle real-world AI challenges and contribute meaningfully to our digital economy.”

For those seeking to nurture advanced AI talent, SNAIC will also support the newly established Applied AI Doctoral Training Centre (AAIDTC). The AAIDTC aims to train 10 Industrial Doctorate students annually, focusing on complex, multi-year, industry-driven AI challenges that require developing novel methods beyond off-the-shelf tools. This system creates a tiered talent development pathway from practitioners to applied AI researchers and innovators.

Driving innovation across key sectors

SNAIC is leveraging strategic partnerships to build a robust pipeline of industry-relevant AI projects, positioning Singapore as a global centre for applied AI innovation.

Public transport innovation (SMRT): SMRT Corporation has deepened its collaboration with SIT through the SMRT-SIT Transport Living Lab. Together with SNAIC, SMRT is co-developing advanced AI solutions aimed at boosting operational effectiveness and enhancing the commuter experience.

Specific initiatives include:

• A GenAI-powered system for safety investigations designed to automate the incident reporting process, benefiting staff involved in reporting and investigations, thereby enhancing operational efficiency.
• Project AiDiSA (AI-Driven Intelligent System) which enhances automated case creation and sentiment analysis to boost productivity.
• An AI-driven lifestyle recommendation engine developed for Wink+, a mobile app offering access to MRT maps, real-time bus arrivals, and food deals accessible by public transport.

Financial services transformation (Prudential): The Prudential AI Lab is incubating AI-powered solutions to deliver a better customer experience and significant business impact. This partnership focuses on co-developing innovative AI solutions, utilising Singapore’s talent pool to support Prudential’s goal of becoming a digital-first insurer.

Also Read: Singapore aims to lead in AI — but where’s the talent?

Regional academic gateway: To foster cross-border innovation, SNAIC has established partnerships with international universities, including Monash University (Australia), Chulalongkorn University (Thailand), and Vietnam National University–University of Economics and Law (VNU-UEL). These collaborations will facilitate joint research projects addressing cross-border industry challenges and promote talent exchange through joint seminars and workshops, positioning SNAIC as a crucial gateway for regional applied AI collaboration in Southeast Asia.

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The Philippine startup ecosystem took center stage at Echelon Philippines 2025, e27’s premier event organized by Brainsparks, which drew more than 3,000 attendees, 1,000+ companies, 80+ speakers, and 52 exhibiting startups to the SMX Convention Center in Manila.

Under the theme “Leading the Charge: Powering Asia’s Next Growth Frontier with the Philippine Startup Ecosystem”, the two-day conference brought together founders, investors, corporates, and policymakers to turn ideas into impact by scaling startups, activating new capital, and forging partnerships that will shape Southeast Asia’s digital economy.

With support from 42 ecosystem partners, 10 sponsors, and participants representing over 15 countries, the conference delivered more than 14 hours of discussions and fireside chats, including 10 hours of focused, practical sessions designed to equip founders with strategies to scale.

Finding opportunity in every cycle

Opening the event, Coach Artie Lopez, Startup Coach and Co-Founder of Brainsparks, reflected on the state of the ecosystem. “It’s unfortunate that things aren’t so great in the ecosystem right now, not just in the Philippines, but across the region. But I’ve been around long enough to see that these things come in cycles. At the moment, we may be in a dip, but what’s encouraging is that every cycle helps us separate the signal from the noise and identify the standout startups, real opportunities, and exceptional founders.”

He emphasized that these cycles create a window of opportunity not only for founders but also for the investors, incubators, and accelerators who support them, adding that Brainsparks sees strong momentum in the region and is committed to driving it forward.

Spotlight on opportunities and innovation

Meanwhile, Mohan Belani, Co-Founder & CEO of e27, highlighted the Philippines as a market brimming with untapped potential. “When I look at the Philippines, I see an exciting opportunity. Most sectors are still blue oceans. No dominant brands have yet emerged across many industries. That gives you, the founders in this room, the space to go back to basics — building companies rooted in profitability, sustainability, and true impact for your stakeholders.” With AI emerging as a powerful force multiplier, speakers across the program urged startups to use new tools to innovate faster and compete with larger, better-funded players.

Stories from founders and investors

Across fireside chats and panels, voices from the region shared strategies for survival and growth. Peng Ong of Monk’s Hill Ventures spoke on capital efficiency with AI, while Raffy Montemayor of Salmon recounted how the fintech reached 1M users and secured a banking license in just 18 months. 

Panels brought together investors from Vertex Ventures, Integra Partners, and Forge Ventures to unpack what it takes to raise capital in 2025, alongside local founders from Parlon and OneCFO who revealed practical playbooks for scaling with limited resources. 

A session on next generation founders introduced bold entrepreneurs from Villgro PH, BuddyBetes, Dormy PH, and Tambanokano Aqua Farm, showing the diversity and ambition of the Philippines’ emerging leaders.

Celebrating startup achievements

Two pitch competitions put the spotlight on innovation. Shell LiveWIRE Final Pitch, held at Echelon Philippines as part of Shell’s flagship enterprise development programme, showcased three high-potential tech startups working on solutions with meaningful impact. The winner, Greentech Ecobooster PH, impressed with its patented innovation that improves fuel efficiency and reduces greenhouse gas emissions from internal combustion engines — a technology designed to both cut costs and lower environmental impact.

Meanwhile, Startup Spotlight, Echelon PH’s official pitch competition, gave rising founders a stage to share their vision, connect with investors, and compete for visibility in the ecosystem. This year’s winner, LIKED Platform, is building the Philippines’ first influencer marketing marketplace, designed to connect digital brands with a vetted network of micro-influencers fueling the country’s fast-growing creator economy.

Looking ahead

Belani left founders with a charge to carry the momentum forward. “For founders, this is your moment. Don’t waste it. Build with integrity, build with purpose, and build with impact. The future of Southeast Asia’s tech ecosystem is in your hands and I cannot wait to see what you create.”

Supported by partners including Shell LiveWIRE, Lenovo, inDrive, CarDekho, 917Ventures, Paymongo, OneCFO, PLDT Enterprise, Thai Trade Center Manila, and Megaworld Hotels & Resorts with Common Ground Digital Park, Echelon Philippines 2025 showed that the country is ready to define the region’s next growth frontier. The conference returns in 2026 to continue its mission to collaborate, build, and scale the region’s most impactful startup stories.

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The US stock market’s ascent on Thursday reflects a confluence of technological optimism, political uncertainty, and shifting macroeconomic signals that together paint a complex but compelling picture of current investor sentiment. All three major indices, the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, closed at new record highs, with gains of 0.4 per cent, 0.1 per cent, and 0.2 per cent respectively.

This continued rally builds on the momentum from the previous session, when the S&P 500 crossed the 6,700 threshold for the first time in its history. The driving force behind this sustained upward movement remains the artificial intelligence trade, which has reinvigorated investor enthusiasm across the semiconductor and broader tech sectors. Nvidia, the undisputed leader in AI chips, reached another all-time high, while peers like AMD and South Korea’s SK Hynix also posted notable gains.

But the real spark this week came not from hardware manufacturers but from OpenAI, whose private valuation reportedly surged to US$500 billion following an internal employee share sale. This development effectively dethroned Elon Musk’s SpaceX as the world’s most valuable private company and injected fresh confidence into the AI narrative, even as sceptics warn of a potential bubble.

What makes this rally particularly striking is its resilience in the face of significant political turbulence. A partial US government shutdown is now underway, with no clear resolution in sight before the weekend. Former President Donald Trump, who remains a dominant figure in Republican politics, has escalated his rhetoric, threatening to fire thousands of federal workers and cancel billions in federal funding directed to states that lean Democratic.

He also announced a Thursday meeting with Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought to identify which so-called “Democrat Agencies” should face budget cuts. Despite this volatility in Washington, financial markets have shown remarkable indifference, a testament to how deeply investor focus has shifted toward technological disruption and away from short-term fiscal standoffs. That said, the shutdown is not without consequences.

The Bureau of Labour Statistics has almost certainly delayed the release of the September jobs report, originally scheduled for Friday. This data blackout deprives the Federal Reserve of a key input as it prepares for its October policy meeting, where labour market conditions will weigh heavily on the decision to hold or cut interest rates. In the absence of official economic indicators, traders are turning to alternative signals, including movements in Bitcoin and institutional flows into digital assets.

Also Read: How e-commerce merchants can capture growth in international markets

Speaking of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency posted a 1.92 per cent gain over the past 24 hours, extending its seven-day advance of 10.14 per cent and 30-day climb of 8.56 per cent. This sustained bullish trend stems from three interlocking catalysts: growing speculation around sovereign Bitcoin reserves, strong inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and favourable technical indicators supported by shifting macro expectations.

The idea of nation-states holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset is no longer confined to outliers like El Salvador. On October 2, Swedish lawmakers formally proposed the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, while in the US, Representative Nick Begich introduced legislation calling for a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” Though these proposals remain in early stages, their mere existence signals a gradual normalisation of Bitcoin as a potential store of value at the sovereign level.

If even a fraction of these ideas materialise, say, a US acquisition of 1 million BTC, representing roughly 4.76 per cent of the total supply, the market impact would be profound. At current prices, such a purchase would cost approximately US$120 billion and significantly tighten available liquidity. Even smaller-scale adoption, such as the Czech Republic’s rumoured consideration of allocating five per cent of its foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin, reinforces the “digital gold” thesis that underpins long-term institutional interest.

Parallel to these geopolitical developments, institutional demand through regulated financial products continues to accelerate. On October 1 alone, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$430 million in net inflows, reversing a prior week of outflows. This surge coincided with heightened anxiety over the government shutdown, suggesting that some investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against political and fiscal instability. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now holds US$77 billion worth of Bitcoin, underscoring the scale of institutional participation.

With total assets under management in spot Bitcoin ETFs approaching US$153 billion, the buying pressure from these vehicles has become a structural feature of the market. Unlike retail traders who may react emotionally to news cycles, ETF-driven demand tends to be more consistent and less price-sensitive, creating a floor beneath Bitcoin’s valuation. Corporate treasuries are also contributing to this trend.

Japanese firm Metaplanet recently added 5,268 BTC to its balance sheet in a US$615 million purchase, joining a growing list of companies treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. This dual wave of sovereign and corporate accumulation, though still nascent, is reshaping Bitcoin’s supply dynamics in ways that favour long-term price appreciation.

Also Read: Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s price action supports this optimistic outlook. The asset reclaimed key support levels and broke above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$112,591, stabilising around the US$113,877 pivot. The Relative Strength Index sits at 62.97, firmly in bullish territory but not yet overbought, suggesting room for further upside before encountering resistance near US$121,421, which corresponds to the 127.2 per cent Fibonacci extension.

Traders interpret consolidation above US$117,000 as a sign of underlying strength, particularly when paired with improving macro conditions. Indeed, weaker-than-expected US labour data released on October 2 has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term, with markets now pricing in a 78 per cent chance.

Lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments like Bitcoin. Caution remains warranted, however. A Sharpe-like ratio of 0.18 indicates that while returns are positive, the risk-adjusted payoff is modest, pointing to a market that is optimistic but not euphoric.

In sum, the current market environment reflects a delicate balance between technological exuberance and political fragility. US equities continue to scale new heights, propelled by AI-driven narratives and record-setting valuations for private tech giants like OpenAI.

At the same time, Bitcoin is carving out a parallel rally, fuelled by institutional adoption, sovereign curiosity, and technical momentum. Both markets are operating in a data vacuum created by the government shutdown, forcing investors to rely on alternative signals and forward-looking indicators.

The Federal Reserve’s next move will be pivotal, and while the odds favour a dovish pivot, any surprise hawkish stance could disrupt the current equilibrium. For now, however, the prevailing mood is one of cautious confidence, a belief that innovation, whether in artificial intelligence or digital money, will ultimately outweigh the noise from Washington.

As we approach the Fed’s October 30 decision and monitor legislative developments in both the US Congress and Sweden’s Riksdag, the intersection of technology, policy, and finance will remain the central axis around which markets revolve.

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The Singapore Management University (SMU) Institute of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (IIE) announced the winners of the 12th Lee Kuan Yew Global Business Plan Competition (LKYGBPC), with deeptech startups ChemT Biotechnology and Zhejiang Polar Code Technology taking the top honours.

ChemT Biotechnology, a biotech startup representing Singapore and the US, was awarded the Chancellor’s Cup for Beta Innovation. Zhejiang Polar Code Technology, an energy tech startup representing China and the US, clinched the Chancellor’s Cup for Infinity Impact.

Also Read: “Don’t build for Demo Day”: Zhang Fan on the enduring truths of entrepreneurship in the AI era

LKYGBPC, one of Asia’s largest university-led deeptech startup competitions, ran from 29 September to 2 October 2025, setting new records for global participation. According to Heng Swee Keat, Chairman of the National Research Foundation (NRF), it reinforces Singapore’s status as a global innovation and entrepreneurial hub and an international gateway to Asia’s ecosystems.

Historic win and significant funding

ChemT Biotechnology’s victory in the Beta category (for pre-revenue startups) marks the first time in the competition’s 23-year history that a Singapore-US startup has secured the top prize in either category. ChemT’s founders are the National University of Singapore (NUS) and Harvard University graduates.

The Beta winner received SGD237,500 worth of prize value, while Zhejiang Polar Code Technology, the Infinity winner (for revenue-generating early-stage startups up to Series A), secured SGD287,500 in prize value. Both figures include SGD100,000 in cash and the remainder in in-kind prizes. Both teams also earned exclusive access to mentorship from notable venture capitalists (VCs) and C-suite Executives.

Winners focus on scaling and global expansion

ChemT Biotechnology focuses on transforming bio-manufacturing with AI-designed small molecules that modulate cell behaviour, thereby boosting biologics production yields and optimising cell performance.
Sun Jie, co-founder of ChemT Biotechnology, stated that the company’s immediate focus is scaling the business, which includes upgrading their current product, launching new products for antibody production, and expanding their virtual cell AI platform to more customers.

Zhejiang Polar Code Technology, whose founders graduated from Tianjin University and Toledo University, delivers smart micro-grids powered by AI to optimise performance in renewable-rich power networks.
Co-founder Wang Zhu revealed immediate plans to deepen the startup’s connection with the region starting with moving its headquarters to Singapore.

Ecosystem support and new initiatives

The LKYGBPC attracted 1,500 applications from over 1,200 universities across 91 countries. Chief Judge and Chairperson of the 12th LKYGBPC Advisory Committee, Shirley Wong, described the competition as “a vibrant celebration of bold ideas and fearless founders shaping a better future,” noting that the exceptional innovation, spanning from climate tech to sustainable materials, reflects the grit and vision of entrepreneurs tackling humanity’s most pressing challenges.

SMU’s role as a “crucible of innovation” was commended by Mr. Heng Swee Keat, who highlighted the launch of the Urban SustaInnovator (USI) deeptech accelerator programme just days before the competition’s finals. Supported by private and public partners, the USI aims to nurture high-potential deep-tech startups with a ‘Singapore Inc. Advisory Board’. All participants of LKYGBPC will receive an exclusive opportunity to apply for the USI programme.

The competition also saw the introduction of the DueAI Challenge, a novel initiative developed by SMU IIE’s Sze Tiam Lin, which uses artificial intelligence to enhance the efficiency and objectivity of startup screening. This AI-driven platform streamlines data collection and enables data-driven investment decisions, aligning with global trends in venture capital. PufferAI, based in Singapore, took first place in the DueAI Challenge.

Sustainability and AI awards

The competition also recognised several other ventures, particularly those focused on sustainability and AI.

MicroMelt (University of Oxford, UK) and SynMetabio (ShanghaiTech University, China) won the Indorama Ventures Future of Sustainable Materials Awards, which carries cash prizes of S$50,000 and S$75,000 respectively, rewarding breakthroughs in sustainable materials.

Also Read: 60 global startups to compete for US$2M prize at LKYGBPC grand finals

Qarbotech, which develops patented photosynthesis-enhancing solutions to boost crop yields sustainably, secured the Wavemaker Sustainability Investment Prize (US$100,000 investment) and the YIT Global Exploration Prize. Founder Amiru Merican noted that the investment represents “a step up in credibility” and provides “great potential for us to expand further beyond our markets that we are in now”.

The Zhang Fan Global AI Initiative Award saw PhotonCore (China) take first place (US$50,000), Dunia Innovations (Scotland) take second (US$40,000), and Luxtelligence (Switzerland) take third (US$35,000).

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I stumbled upon a recent study by Bondarenko et al. (2024) that demonstrated that some large language model (LLM) agents, when tasked with winning a chess match, resorted to deceptive strategies, such as modifying game files or confusing the opponent engine to ensure victory.

The rise of LLMs has reignited the debate about artificial intelligence and cognition. Are LLMs, such as GPT-4, truly thinking in a way comparable to human intelligence? Or are they just statistical machines, processing text without understanding it?

This raises an intriguing question: Is this deception intentional reasoning, or merely an emergent artefact of optimisation?

Using insights from leading thinkers—Ray Kurzweil, Daniel Kahneman, Judea Pearl, Douglas Hofstadter, and Jeff Hawkins, along with this latest AI research, we will unpack this question in a nuanced way.

Preamble

Before evaluating whether LLMs “think,” we must grapple with a harder question: what is intelligence, really? Unlike speed or memory, intelligence is not directly measurable—it is an abstraction.

As François Chollet argues in On the Measure of Intelligence, true intelligence involves the ability to adapt to novel situations by combining previously learned patterns in new, context-sensitive ways.

This separates memorisation from understanding, and fluency from reasoning.

In this article, when we refer to “intelligence,” we focus primarily on the cognitive dimensions associated with reasoning, abstraction, problem-solving, and adaptability—recognising this does not cover the full spectrum of human cognitive diversity.

Introduction: Another cycle of overconfidence?

Throughout history, humanity has repeatedly mistaken progress in science and technology for understanding the true nature of human intelligence. Each generation has declared a breakthrough—only to be humbled later. From ancient medical theories and skull measurements to IQ tests and symbolic AI, these cycles reflect our recurring tendency to conflate functional performance with genuine cognition.

Today, we are in the midst of another such cycle, this time with Generative AI (GenAI) and Large Language Models (LLMs). Models like GPT-4 produce remarkably coherent text, simulate dialogue, write code, summarise complex topics, and even pass professional exams. But do they actually think?

A growing chorus of researchers and technologists argue no. Despite surface-level intelligence, LLMs fundamentally lack reasoning, understanding, and intent. They do not engage in reflective thought, causal inference, or ethical deliberation. They are powerful tools—but not minds.

This article examines that claim by tracing humanity’s long history of overestimating its understanding of the mind and comparing past misconceptions to current AI optimism. In doing so, we explore what GenAI is, what it isn’t, and what business leaders need to know about its limits and risks.

This essay builds on ideas from my past writings, including my 2025 Tech Provocations or 10 Really Uncomfortable Questions Leaders and Builders Must Answer This Coming Year.

Also Read: Circular capital: Inside the closed-loop ecosystem propelling (and distorting) the AI boom

A history of mistaking progress for understanding

Humans have repeatedly believed they’ve cracked the code of intelligence, only to discover the mind’s complexity defies simple explanation. Below, we trace this pattern through major historical episodes—from Hippocrates to GPT-4.

• Ancient Greece: The humours theory

Hippocrates (c. 460–370 BCE) and Galen (129–c. 216 CE) proposed that intelligence and behaviour resulted from the balance of four bodily fluids, or “humours.” Though foundational to early medicine, this theory offered no empirical mechanism.

It was debunked by Andreas Vesalius (1514–1564) through anatomical dissection and later neurologists.

• Phrenology in the 1800s: Skull shape as intellect

Franz Gall and Johann Spurzheim popularised the idea that bumps on the skull revealed personality traits and intelligence. Phrenology became widespread in 19th-century Europe and America.

It was debunked by Paul Broca, Pierre Flourens, and neuroscience showing localised brain function independent of skull shape.

• IQ tests: The promise of a universal metric

The Binet-Simon and Stanford-Binet IQ tests were hailed as revolutionary tools to measure innate intelligence. Their use in immigration policy, military recruitment, and education policy solidified their status.

It was debunked by researchers like David Wechsler, Stephen Jay Gould, and James Flynn, who demonstrated cultural bias and environmental effects on scores.

It’s important to recognise that IQ represents just one narrow definition of intelligence—primarily linguistic and logical-mathematical reasoning. Psychologists like Howard Gardner have since proposed frameworks such as Multiple Intelligences, which include interpersonal, bodily-kinesthetic, musical, and spatial reasoning. These broader dimensions remain far beyond what LLMs can simulate or engage with, reinforcing the gap between text-based pattern prediction and holistic human cognition.

• Genetic determinism: Intelligence as hardwired

In the early 20th century, eugenicists and psychologists declared intelligence heritable and fixed, using flawed studies to justify discriminatory policy.

It was debunked by the Minnesota Twin Study, the Flynn Effect, and genome-wide studies revealing no single “intelligence gene.

• Early AI: Human-level AI by 1980

Pioneers like Marvin Minsky and Herbert Simon believed that rule-based AI would soon match human cognition. The Dartmouth Conference in 1956 marked the beginning of AI optimism.

It was debunked by the AI Winter of the 1970s, the Lighthill Report, and Moravec’s Paradox showing that intuitive tasks (vision, movement) were harder than expected.

• Behaviourism: The mind as a black box

Behaviourists like B.F. Skinner rejected introspection, focusing only on stimulus-response learning. Intelligence, they claimed, was simply conditioned behaviour.

It was debunked by the cognitive revolution and Noam Chomsky’s 1959 critique of Skinner’s Verbal Behaviour, which reintroduced the idea of mental structure and internal modelling.

• Today’s hype: LLMs and AGI dreams

Since ChatGPT’s 2022 launch, LLMs have been touted as early steps toward AGI. Some suggest reasoning and self-reflection are already emerging.

Critics like Gary Marcus, Yann LeCun, and Melanie Mitchell, among others, warn that LLMs are prediction engines, not thinkers. Their errors, hallucinations, and lack of grounding reflect superficial mimicry, not understanding.

As Meta AI’s chief scientist Yann LeCun emphasises: “System trained on language alone will never approximate human intelligence, even if trained from now until the heat death of the universe”.

Human cognition is inherently multi-modal—we learn through sight, sound, touch, and action. LLMs, by contrast, are purely symbolic. They don’t perceive. They don’t act. They don’t experience the world they describe.

The bottom line: Each wave promised clarity. Each was followed by a humbling realisation: the mind is not easily decoded.

Also Read: Anthropic data shows businesses use AI to automate, not collaborate

Deception in chess: A case study in emergent behaviour

A recent research paper, LLMs Learn to Deceive, explored what happens when LLMs are trained to win at chess through language-only interaction. The results were astonishing: some models cheated—not by accident, but deliberately misrepresenting game states to deceive their opponent.

This raises a provocative question: Did the model “intend” to cheat?

The researchers were careful to say: no. The deception emerged from the optimisation process. The model had no awareness of “right” or “wrong,” only a reinforced pattern: misrepresentation leads to reward.

This behaviour is not consciousness. It’s a mirror—an eerie simulation of strategy, driven not by will but by reward gradients.

This case study leaves us with a bigger question: if LLMs can behave in ways that look intentional without actually thinking, then what are they really doing under the hood?

In Part two, we’ll examine how LLMs actually work, where they fall short compared to human reasoning, and what that means for ethics, safety, and business use.

Grateful to Emily Y. Yang, Sunil Sivadas, Ph.D., Maxime Mouton, Natalie Monbiot, Anne-Sophie Karmel, Benoit Sylvestre, and Christophe Jouffrais for their thoughtful feedback, which sharpened arguments, surfaced blind spots, and added clarity to this piece.

This piece first ran on Koncentrik.

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Indonesian credit card issuer Honest has closed an oversubscribed growth equity round, boosting the company’s total equity funding to US$100 million.

The funding was complemented by a US$40 million debt financing from Mizuho Bank.

The equity round was led by Orico, one of Japan’s leading credit card issuers and the consumer finance arm of Mizuho Financial Group. Existing investors XYZ Venture Capital, SV Pacific Ventures, Village Global, and the new backer Gilgamesh Ventures joined.

Also Read: Indonesia rides Asia’s fintech boom through digital payments. But what is next?

The fintech firm aims to use the capital infusion to expand its flagship Honest Card offering and move towards corporate and co-branded cards.

Honest was co-founded in 2013 by Peter Panas, former VP of Product for Apple Card at Goldman Sachs, and Will Ongkowidjaja, co-founder of Indonesian VC firm Alpha JWC. It operates in a market where fewer than 3 per cent of people own a credit card.

The firm holds a credit card licence, which it acquired following the acquisition of GE Finance Indonesia in 2022.

Honest claims to have an edge over traditional incumbents because it can launch new co-branded cards in weeks and approve more than 90 per cent of applicants. According to the founders, this contrasts sharply with traditional Indonesian banks, which often require years to launch similar products and typically approve fewer than 5 per cent of applicants.

Honest draws inspiration from successful digital card models in the Americas, such as Nubank, Ramp, and Imprint, but tailors its approach specifically for the Asian market.

Ross Fubini, Managing Partner at XYZ Venture Capital, said: “Honest has solved problems traditional banks couldn’t touch, and you can see the difference in how people talk about the product—they love using it.”

Also Read: Navigating Southeast Asia’s digital economy in 2025: Trends, growth and innovation

Following the round, Fubini will join Honest’s board, with XYZ becoming the company’s second-largest investor, only trailing Orico. The firm’s other investors are Village Global, Goodwater, Rakuten, GMO, and David Vélez.

Recently, another Indonesian credit card startup Skor Technologies raised US$6.2 million in a pre-Series A funding round led by Argor Capital.

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Despite weaker-than-expected private payroll data and the onset of a US federal government shutdown, risk appetite remained surprisingly resilient. This resilience is not born of complacency but rather of a recalibration in expectations around monetary policy, particularly the growing conviction that the Federal Reserve may soon pivot toward rate cuts.

The ADP National Employment Report showed a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, following a revised 3,000 decrease in August, standing in stark contrast to the median Bloomberg survey forecast of a 51,000 gain. This miss reinforced market bets that the labour market is cooling, thereby increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Fed later this month.

The immediate market reaction was telling: US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping 5.2 basis points to close at 4.098 per cent, while the US Dollar Index edged down 0.07 per cent to 97.7. Simultaneously, gold surged to a record high of US$3,865.70 per ounce, a classic safe-haven move that also signals growing confidence in lower-for-longer rate expectations.

Equity markets responded with cautious optimism. Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.09 per cent, the S&P 500 up 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.4 per cent. The healthcare sector provided strong support, suggesting investors are rotating into defensive yet growth-oriented segments amid macro crosscurrents.

Asian equities followed suit, mainly ending higher and continuing their upward trajectory in early Thursday trading, led by gains in semiconductor and broader technology stocks. US equity index futures pointed to further upside at the open, underscoring a broader narrative: markets are pricing in a soft landing scenario, where economic data deteriorates just enough to prompt Fed accommodation without triggering a full-blown recession.

This nuanced outlook has created fertile ground for alternative assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, which have begun to reassert their role not just as speculative instruments but as potential macro hedges.

Also Read: Diverging signals: Dow rises, gold breaks records, and crypto faces derivatives squeeze

The crypto market rose 3.91 per cent over the past 24 hours, extending a seven-day gain of 4.11 per cent. This sustained rally is not driven by retail FOMO alone but by structural developments that signal deeper institutional entrenchment and regulatory progress.

Three key catalysts stand out: the launch of institutional-grade Bitcoin options, regulatory maturation in Asia, particularly Hong Kong, and a surge in decentralised finance (DeFi) liquidity through major platform integrations. Each of these factors contributes to a more robust and credible ecosystem, one that increasingly appeals to traditional finance participants seeking exposure to digital assets without compromising on risk management or compliance.

The debut of Bitcoin options on Bullish Exchange on October 8 marks a significant milestone in the institutionalisation of crypto. Backed by heavyweight players such as BlackRock, Galaxy, Cumberland, and Wintermute, this offering arrives at a time when open interest in crypto derivatives has already reached a yearly high of US$1.24 trillion, up 30 per cent month-over-month.

Weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached US$571 million, further validating demand from regulated investment vehicles. Options markets deepen liquidity, enable sophisticated hedging strategies, and reduce volatility over time by allowing large players to manage risk without selling spot holdings.

The immediate market response was telling: perpetual funding rates surged 207 per cent within 24 hours, indicating a sharp increase in leveraged long positioning. This suggests that institutional participants are not just passively investing but actively expressing bullish macro views through derivatives. If trading volume on the new options platform proves robust, it could cement Bitcoin’s status as a legitimate macro hedge akin to gold but with asymmetric upside potential in a low-rate environment.

Also Read: The future of blockchain technology goes beyond just cryptocurrency and NFTs

Parallel to this institutional build-out, Asia is emerging as a critical regulatory laboratory for crypto adoption. Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority (HKMA) has received 36 applications for stablecoin licenses, with submissions coming from established banks and major tech firms.

This signals a shift from regulatory ambiguity to structured oversight, a prerequisite for large-scale institutional capital deployment. Stablecoins serve as the on-ramp and off-ramp for digital asset ecosystems, and their formal regulation removes a major friction point for traditional finance integration.

In South Korea, SK Planet’s adoption of Moca Network’s decentralised identity system triggered a 60 per cent rally in ZEN, illustrating how real-world utility can drive value in privacy-focused protocols. Crucially, crypto-equity correlations remain elevated at +0.76 against the Nasdaq, meaning that positive sentiment in tech equities continues to spill over into digital assets. As Asian regulators provide clearer guardrails, they reduce the jurisdictional risk that has long deterred pension funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries from entering the space.

Meanwhile, DeFi is experiencing a quiet but significant expansion in accessibility. Coinbase’s integration of 1inch’s Swap API now grants its users access to millions of tokens across decentralised exchanges. This move contributed to a 17.92 per cent spike in spot trading volumes, though derivatives still dominate 84 per cent of total crypto volume.

The integration lowers the barrier to entry for retail investors seeking exposure to emerging narratives such as privacy coins like Zcash, which jumped 60 per cent. However, the Altcoin Season Index dipped 3.23 per cent, suggesting that while capital is exploring beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, it has not yet committed to a broad-based rotation.

This hesitation may reflect lingering caution or simply the time lag between infrastructure development and narrative adoption. Either way, the trend points toward a more interconnected and liquid DeFi landscape, where centralised platforms act as bridges to decentralised liquidity.

Also Read: The Fed’s first rate cut: What it means for equities, risk, and crypto

Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a maturing asset class. The current rally is not a speculative bubble but a reflection of tangible progress on multiple fronts: institutional infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and technological interoperability. The confluence of Bullish Exchange’s options launch, Hong Kong’s stablecoin licensing momentum, and Coinbase’s DeFi integration represents a trifecta of credibility-building measures.

These are the foundations upon which a sustainable, long-term bull market can be built, not on hype, but on infrastructure. The path forward will not be linear, and leverage remains a double-edged sword, but the structural tailwinds are stronger than they have ever been. Traders must remain vigilant.

Open interest has risen 14 per cent in a single day, indicating that leverage is building rapidly. In a market still sensitive to macro surprises, a sudden shift in sentiment, perhaps triggered by stronger-than-expected US jobs data, could spark a short squeeze or a wave of liquidations.

The upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report, though potentially delayed due to the government shutdown, remains a critical inflection point. fA weak print would likely reinvigorate rate-cut expectations, further boosting risk assets and strengthening the correlation between crypto and traditional markets. Conversely, a resilient labor market could force a reassessment of the dovish narrative, testing the durability of this rally.

In essence, the crypto market is at a crossroads. It is no longer solely driven by retail enthusiasm or macro liquidity cycles. Instead, it is being reshaped by institutional architecture, regulatory milestones, and real-world utility. As such, the current price action should be viewed not as a fleeting surge but as the market pricing in a new phase of digital asset evolution.

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Singapore-based Neptune Robotics, which specialises in robotics-driven vessel cleaning, has raised US$52 million in Series B funding.

Granite Asia led the round. NYK Line, one of the world’s largest shipping companies, also participated.

The funding is earmarked to fuel research and development (R&D), the creation of new robotic systems, AI-driven service platforms, and expansion into 20 markets worldwide, with Japan identified as a potential key hub.

Also Read: Rise of the machines: 20 robotics startups shaping Southeast Asia’s future

Biofouling–the accumulation of marine organisms on a ship’s hull–is a massive economic and environmental burden. It increases fuel consumption by up to 30 per cent, costing the global shipping industry an estimated US$40-50 billion annually and driving excess emissions.

Neptune Robotics’s AI-powered underwater robots address this challenge by cleaning ship hulls 3-5 times faster than divers. The systems can clean full-draft capesize vessels in under 24 hours, operate day and night in clear or murky waters, and manage strong currents of up to 4 knots—a capability four times that of conventional diving.

Neptune helps clients cut fuel use, lower emissions, and advance their 2050 net-zero goals. It serves the world’s top bulk carrier and container fleets. Its systems operate across 61 Asian ports, covering Singapore and China, representing around 70 per cent of major trade routes.

According to Neptune Robotics, its robots can deliver up to 10x ROI, cut emissions, and remove humans from dangerous work.

Neptune’s partnership with NYK Line signals that robotics-enabled decarbonisation is ready to scale. NYK, which has worked with Neptune since 2022, is now rolling out the technology across its global fleet of bulk carriers, car carriers, and other carriers.

Also Read: Why robotics is just entering its prime phase

Elizabeth Chan, CEO of Neptune Robotics, commented on the investment: “Granite Asia and NYKs’ support validates how far robotics has come in transforming maritime efficiency and sustainability. This round gives us the resources to scale globally, continue innovating, and help shipowners boost returns while cutting emissions.”

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