You have a startup idea. Now what? This blog is going to take you through the key facets of a business model and the industry environment to help you build conviction that your startup idea makes sense before you start. It’s not just a list of things to test in coffee shops and with a live product to validate it.
If you internalise all the key factors, you’ll be able to rapidly evaluate each and every idea you have and hopefully help you mitigate wasting time on ideas that are doomed to fail for reasons you could have predicted.
When you have an idea, you will have a torrent of thoughts, especially if this is your first startup rodeo:
- Will VCs fund my idea? (No)
- Should I sell my house and just build this idea? (No)
- Should I validate my idea? (Yes!!!)
- Will it cost me a lot of cash to validate my idea (Not really)
- Can I validate this without talking to customers? (Yes)
- Should I talk to customers before building something? (Yes)
Clearly, you should start out doing the groundwork to really validate an idea. If you are not flush with cash, then you might be happy to know that spending money to validate your idea is actually the last step. There is a whole lot you can do if you understand business models to figure out if you are dead on arrival first, or if this idea is worth actually spending any time on at all.
Let me take you through the thought process of how to evaluate a business idea. First, let’s start by creating a baseline for your objectives to ensure the idea meets it.
Is this a side hustle or your big idea?
First, you need to set your personal expectations with any idea you will have. Are you doing a ‘side hustle’ and want to make some cash, or are you planning on going VC crazy and gunning for a monster exit? Both are equally fine. But there are large implications of both that heavily impact how you review the idea.
Side hustle
I bosh out some ‘startups’ which are basically passive income. If I make a few grand a month from them and I don’t have to do too much work, what the heck, right! But if you want to go big or go broke then the bar is really different, not just higher.
If you have a family, aren’t a big risk taker, but have an entrepreneurial itch, then why not launch something small? You never know, this could grow and become something big?
Ideally, it’s something close to what you do for a job or that is your hobby.
- If you have experience in M&A you could set up a course for budding analysts to get into M&A? Maybe you make models for PE investors?
- If you work in customer care, you might notice you built a handy little time-saving tool you built for yourself. Perhaps, other people would like that too? Why not polish it and sell it as a little SaaS business?
The main benefit of doing something ‘close to home’ is you really know what you are doing and are the customer yourself. You know already what people need and want, you might even know the market size and how much people will pay? That’s really handy, right! Might you even build something and get your company to be the first customer?
If this is your goal, you need to view your ‘idea’ through the lens of a side hustle. You might spend a few $k of your savings, but you don’t intend raising investment, so what you build has to be within these constraints. If it involves hiring 40 people and doing field sales, you should probably drop the idea and look for something easier to ship and manage.
Also read: Is Singapore’s early stage startup scene dead? What happened?
Gunning for a billion
If your goal with the startup idea is to make a tonne of cash which will involve raising a load of venture capital, you need to view your idea through an entirely different lens. The bar is 100x everything than for a hustle.
It needs to have a potentially huge market, there need to be scaleable acquisition channels, you need to be able to recruit an elite team, you need to think critically of your unit economics and you will want to have a special sauce that will imbue you with an enduring competitive advantage.
Figuring out an awesome VC fundable startup idea is not easy. When analysing your model you need to think far more critically than you would for a side hustle. Your idea might be fine for a side hustle, but you are going to drop most ideas as they just won’t meet the bar for investible. That’s fine, but be ok to kill your darlings. Don’t start something that doesn’t make sense, just because you want to do something.
How much do you want to sell for?
This is a question I ask all founders that I mentor and do consulting calls with. It’s is honestly incredible that 100% of people that I pose this to have no answer. They often say “hmm … I didn’t think about this.”
Whilst you care about your exit, it is all that investors think about. I’ve written about this in detail here: A meaningful founder exit is not the same thing for venture capital.
If you are setting up a side hustle you need to answer this question:
How much do I want to make each month to make this worthwhile?
This could be $5k a month. If you don’t think your idea can generate this much income, then you need to kill the idea.
If you are setting a VC fundable startup, you need to answer this question:
What do I want to sell this for and will someone buy it?
There are a lot of implications for how much you sell your startup for. If your goal is $20m it’s only likely at best fundable by one small angel round. That’s the only way the numbers work. If you are gunning for a $billion, then you are VC backable, but you’re going to have to build something really massive.
My recommendation is that you should aim to sell your startup for at least $200m. Sure, that’s still a large number, but VC’s business model needs you to have the ‘potential’ to be really large, assuming things go to plan.
For any VC fundable startup you are seeking an idea for, you need to write a $ number and figure out if your idea can get there. If not, then you need to drop it and keep looking. Don’t forget it’s ok to enlarge the market opportunity by redefining the market over time. Uber started with the market for black cars and then redefined it as the market for mobility. That’s a big claim, but hopefully, you get the implication.
It is worth bearing in mind though, that your pool of potential acquirors gets smaller and smaller as you become more and more valuable. There’s really only a handful of companies that can buy you for a billion. The number for $100m is vastly larger, as it is for sub a hundred. Consider the acquirers for different levels of success- are there many people who could buy me for $200m? Would anyone buy me for a billion, or do I need to IPO?
Additionally is what you are building a potential financial or strategic acquisition? You get better multiples for a strategic acquisition, but then why are you really strategic?
Ok, we are getting into the weeds too much now, but there are some of the ‘advanced level’ factors that you can retain in the back of your mind when evaluating an idea. I ask these questions to myself, but it happens in 20 seconds and not 5 hours. It’s a quick sense check.
Problem
By hook or crook you had an insight into a problem that people have and you think many people will share. This is always the first step. To be clear though, figuring out tech or a solution and then go looking for a problem is almost always a terrible idea.
I wrote about this in detail here: Your solution is not my problem.
The solution may sound good, but not solving a real problem is a key reason for failure (42% of the time). See the main reasons for failure here:
Here is a presentation I wrote for a talk at Oxford about dumb ways startups die:
I highly recommend getting an idea for what your CAC and LTV will be. All startup is just a function of these two numbers. Your forecasts will be wrong, but you need to fathom what you can play with on the CAC side to get a sense for what channels you can afford, or not. If your LTV is about $50, you can’t afford paid channels with $200 CAC (CPC x conversion rate).
If you want to get into some more detail, I wrote a blog about why you should build a startup and why passion is overrated. This is incredibly linked to what we are discussing in this blog. Another recommended reading: Passion is over-rated. Build a better mousetrap instead.
Acquisition strategy
I talked about market education, which sort of addresses this, but get really clear on how, where and for how much you will acquire your customers from.
You really need one channel that works. Do you know what this is going to be? How scaleable will these marketing channels be?
If it is paid, it’s easy. You just get ideas for search volume, CPCs and then make assumptions on a conversion rate to get the CAC. I would inflate this number as it doesn’t get cheaper over time as you scale (assuming you plan on scaling).
I wouldn’t rely on something like channel sales at the start. That’s just not going to happen. Platforms are not interested in giving you their customers, they are interested in taking your customers. For enterprise, S&I is the same. Don’t go there till you have already scaled a bit.
If you are doing SEO, can you actually compete? What is the search volume and how competitive are the keywords?
You want to have a quick think about these, but if you aren’t sure, that’s ok. You can launch and figure it out…. but it is something you can develop a go or no go thesis for.
Founder-market fit
You should really question if you want to do this idea and if you are actually the best person for it. Founder market fit matters.
You will only really kill it if:
- You know everything about the industry and are an insider
- You have the network for deals etc
- You have a pool of talent to hire
- You understand the ‘why’ behind the what and when
Sure, plucky kids can do cool stuff, but would you not prefer to back an insider as an investor? If you are building a VC funded startup then understand that the team is 70% of an investor’s investment decision.
If you want to learn more about what an investible founding team is, then I wrote a presentation on this topic: Investible Founding Startup Teams.
Ask yourself if you are the best person to do this… if you are doing the VC thing anyway. But learn if it is a side hustle.
Execution complexity
There are reasons why people in Asia copy startups in America. You don’t get it if you are in America. There is a contiguous land mass and sure there are state laws, but everything is basically the same. There is a tonne of service provers, yada yada.
Try doing ecommerce when your logistics providers suck and you need to teach them how to do their job. I’m not fricking joking. At Lazada, we had more data about logistics company operations than they did and we had to teach them. Everything is hard in new markets. Make no assumptions.
Now let’s pick on enterprise. Sales cycles suuuuuuuuuuuck. 12 months plus is a nightmare and real. I know. I sold to insurance companies and banks. One mate at the investment bank with the largest tech budget on the street said it would realistically take 13 months to be in production (and getting those licence fees).
I can go on, but the point is this. How hard is it for you to execute on your startup? If you are in emerging markets, don’t make assumptions …
Also read: From startup idea to success story: 7 things all entrepreneurs should know
Investment thesis
As a final point, before you start, write an investment thesis. Explain why this makes sense and what you need to prove for this to work in the short term. Be explicit. Then set out to test it.
Write it down so it is real. I don’t have any examples to share right now. I’ve been meaning to write a blog on how to do it.
Testing
Ok, we went through the fundamentals of a startup idea. That is real validation, not just a cheaper alternative to test your idea with AdWords.
Once you really believe you are on the right track, it’s time to actually do some startup planning. How do you execute this?
If we are talking tech product, you need to figure out your starting value proposition. I talk in terms of minimum desirable product, not MVP.
Here is the The real reason to launch faster (not talked about) and I highly recommend reading if you intend raising money.
But… you don’t start with the tech. You want to do some testing, so do this:
- Talk to potential customers. Do they like it and will they pay? Actually, pretend you have product and ask them to pay for it. That’s the difference between talk and walk. Most people will say they like it and will pay it to be nice, but they won’t cough up the dough when you ask for it
- Starbucks ambush. If your market is consumers, ask your avatar in Starbucks in return for a coffee. Tell them it’s your brother’s idea, not yours as they will be more likely to be honest. People are generally nice and don’t care enough to be honest if there is even the inkling of it getting weird for them
- Do a survey. Post if on FB, Hackernews, Reddit, message people etc. Get feedback on the concept, pricing etc. You can chuck in a prize of an Amazon voucher.
- Ask your smartest contacts for feedback. Pitch them the idea. You will learn. Yes, your idea sucks and yes you should share. You can only learn. No one is going to copy you
- Pitch an investor if you have the network. Again pretend it is real and get feedback (negative too)
This blog is more about fundamentals than the customer testing part, but this graphic is pretty interesting and informative, to get an idea of how much work you need to do vs the amount of customer validation. You can see an actual beta product is in the top right and interviews are in the bottom left.
Refine your pitch and product. Figure out if this actually makes sense.
Live test
Don’t build a product first. ‘Ship’ vaporware.
- Name the company
- Buy domain
- Set up a landing page
- Ensure your hero has a ‘to the point’ statement and CTA
- Populate a pretty site which sells benefits
- Set up GA and GTM to track
- Buy some targeted FB ads- key is you want ideas around CAC
- Post to Quora, Reddit, HackerNews, Medium, Startup FB groups…
- Track metrics
- Goal is sign ups
Does it convert or not?
If so, congrats, you have a lead list. If not, you failed fast.
Example
Here is a real example of a consulting like startup I started this year, Perfect Pitch Deck. It helps founders unsuck their pitch decks and help them look fundable.
What was my thesis?
- Pitch decks suck. I know because I get them every day
- There is a large market as there are hundreds of thousands of startups looking for investment and there are competitors in the market already
- Founders don’t know how to write them and would pay for a service with guaranteed pricing
- A lot of issues can be removed by simply redesigning them and rewriting the content
- I’m the best person for this as I am already an expert at pitch decks
- The unit economics will work under certain time constraints and being able to leverage lower cost base of certain countries to execute some of the work
- The cost to launch the service will be low and I can do it fast
- I can acquire customers through Facebook ads profitably
- This isn’t a massive business, but the RoI is enough to warrant me testing it
So I launched it.
What were the exact steps I did to launch this?
- Saw someone do AdWords for pitch decks. Wtf?
- Saw they had 8 people on their hiring page
- See they raised $500k or so on angellist
- Google who else is doing this. Eh, whatever, I’m not going to raise, who cares about competition but understand pricing.
- I’m an expert on pitch decks (founder market fit) so I don’t care as nothing to learn to start
- Do excel model to understand unit economics (Watch it)
- Only costs me a site and some time to launch, f*** it, launch it
- Copy site. Copy … everything. Ghetto on WordPress, Buy theme for $59 and host. (Step by step guide). Just get it done
- Pay chick on Fivrr to make logo for $20
- Set up Stripe
- Get my girl in Phillippines to set up GA and GTM for me
- Pay a dude to build a pricing form on Upwork which sucks. Pay a chick on fiver to build on Jotform (works better) but takes time. FML. Down maybe $150
- Steal my own blogs from alexanderjarvis.com on pitch decks and post on ‘blog’ to fake content
- Steal my ‘featured in’ type logos to add social proof to the site
- Learn how FB ads work
- Brainstorm problem statements to market this
- Use Canva to make some ads
- Set up FB myself and do retargeting on my blog (focused on startup founders also). Scream f*** FB ads is such a crap platform…
- Get a customer for €380 the first day I start ads. Holy crap that was fast. Screw it, let’s put in more work
- Make site nicer (ish)
- Set up some basic marketing automation and lead magnets for an email automation course (Step by step guide)
- Get €22k worth of clients in 2 weeks
- Make site better. French designer says site is terrible, so learn about design. Redesign.
- People start saying site looks awesome.
- Add a new lead magnet to do ‘free pitch deck audits’ and start getting a load of leads which 70% convert (most are too poor). Make template deck which is backed by AI analysis which people think is cool
- Clients start returning for other kinds of help. bla bla bla…
That’s literally what I did to launch and test a startup idea.
Conclusion
Most of the work to validate a startup idea is on the back end and business nerd orientated. I’m certain most founders are not aware quite how much that can be done to derisk their startup idea. The reasons for failure are so common. Of course, your assumptions may all be wrong, but I’d prefer to go into a market with my eyes wide open about what I am seeking to solve for, then just winging it.
Once you have done the groundwork, then it’s time to apply what you have read or learnt about CDM (customer development methodology) and get customer feedback. Yeah, that matters, but there’s a lot of work to build a compelling thesis first.
I hope this guide is useful to help you think about how to review startup ideas. If you need some help figuring out if your business model makes sense or not, you can book a one on one call with me and I can help you with the thinking. Book a time here.
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This article was originally published on alexanderjarvis.com.
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This article was first published on November 14, 2018
The post The ultimate guide to validating your startup idea appeared first on e27.