As Ramadan retail continues to evolve across Southeast Asia, brands are being urged to rethink how they plan, activate and optimise campaigns during the holy month. New insights from Criteo’s analysis of Ramadan 2025 reveal that shoppers are starting earlier, taking longer to decide and converting closer to peak festive moments–a behavioural shift that will intensify as Ramadan and Chinese New Year converge in 2026.
Retail sales across Southeast Asia rose 13 per cent year-on-year during Ramadan 2025, underlining the growing commercial significance of the season. Yet the headline growth masks a deeper transformation in consumer behaviour. For purchases made in the final two weeks of Ramadan, the average time between a shopper’s first product visit and completed purchase stretched to 19 days, with some journeys extending beyond 50 days.
Early discovery, however, did not eliminate late conversion. Indonesia recorded a 35 per cent uplift in retail sales during the last two weeks of Ramadan, peaking at 57 per cent on March 16. Malaysia saw sales climb 26 per cent, with a 52 per cent peak on March 23. Singapore’s sales pattern was more stable, reflecting its diversified retail calendar.
The takeaway for Ramadan retail strategies is clear: shoppers are browsing earlier but still buying closer to Eid.
“Ramadan 2025 underscored a fundamental shift in how consumers plan and purchase–discovery is happening earlier, and shopping journeys are becoming increasingly fluid across channels,” said Sukesh Singh, managing director, Southeast Asia at Criteo.
“As festive moments begin to overlap, this behaviour will only accelerate. At Criteo, our AI-powered intelligence helps brands identify the right audiences at the right time and place, adding relevance across touchpoints and strengthening full-funnel, cross-channel outcomes. Brands that anticipate demand and stay relevant across the entire journey will be far better positioned to earn attention that drives higher conversion.”
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Preparing for a more compressed festive calendar
With Chinese New Year and Ramadan set to fall in the same week in 2026, businesses face a tighter and more competitive festive window. Criteo’s advice to brands centres on five strategic shifts:
Plan Ramadan as a multi-stage season
Ramadan retail can no longer be treated as a short, promotion-led sprint. With discovery beginning weeks ahead of purchase while conversion clusters around peak moments, brands must structure campaigns in phases. Early weeks should focus on awareness and consideration, capturing shoppers during research and comparison. As Eid approaches, messaging should pivot towards urgency, promotions and conversion-led tactics.
Prepare for demand compression
The convergence of major cultural moments is likely to compress demand into shorter timeframes. Shorter decision windows and heightened competition mean brands must be ready for sharper spikes in traffic and transactions. Budgets, inventory and activation plans should be flexible enough to scale quickly during high-intent moments, rather than being distributed evenly across the month.
Align with cultural and daily rhythms
Ramadan retail activity closely follows daily routines. While afternoons generate the highest overall sales, the largest uplift compared with pre-Ramadan levels occurs during Suhoor. In Indonesia, this surge is most pronounced between 3 AM and 5 AM, while in Malaysia it shifts later, between 4 AM and 7 AM. Campaign timing, creative and offers that reflect these culturally relevant windows can significantly improve engagement and conversion.
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Design for non-linear purchase journeys
Ramadan 2025 demonstrated that there is no single path to purchase. Some consumers act quickly on high intent, while others deliberate for weeks. Brands must maintain visibility across multiple touchpoints, from early discovery to final checkout, adapting messaging as intent strengthens. Retail media becomes particularly valuable closer to purchase moments, where intent signals are clearer and performance outcomes are easier to measure.
Rely on data-led optimisation and automation
As festive calendars grow more crowded, static campaign plans struggle to keep pace. Data-driven optimisation and automation enable brands to anticipate demand peaks, detect emerging intent signals and adjust spend, messaging and targeting in real time. This shift towards more adaptive, AI-supported execution allows Ramadan retail campaigns to move from reactive planning to continuous optimisation.
For businesses across Southeast Asia, the message is unequivocal. Ramadan retail is expanding in scale and complexity. Success will not hinge solely on promotional intensity in the final days before Eid, but on sustained relevance throughout a longer, more fluid shopper journey. Brands that anticipate demand, respect cultural rhythms and harness data intelligently will be best placed to win attention — and sales — in the seasons ahead.
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Image Credit: Rauf Alvi on Unsplash
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