The global quantum computing sector is entering a new commercial era, with companies increasingly focused on generating revenue rather than solely advancing research and development. According to McKinsey’s Quantum Technology Monitor 2025, quantum computing firms are expected to surpass US$1 billion in earnings by the end of 2025, marking a significant shift towards market maturity.

In 2024, quantum computing companies collectively earned between US$650 million and US$750 million, up from US$200 million to US$250 million in 2023. The report projects that 2025 revenues will climb to between US$1,000 million and US$1,100 million, driven by broader deployment of quantum hardware, cloud-based access to computing resources, and substantial funding from government and defence sectors.

Market forecasts are equally ambitious. McKinsey estimates the quantum computing market could grow to US$16 billion to US$37 billion by 2030, with further expansion to US$45 billion to US$131 billion by 2040, depending on the growth scenario. Annual growth rates are projected at 11 to 14 per cent over the next decade.

A key driver of this revenue acceleration is the expanding deployment of quantum hardware made accessible via cloud platforms. This model allows companies, researchers, and governments worldwide to harness quantum computing capabilities without the prohibitive cost of owning specialised machines.

Government and defence funding have also played a pivotal role, supporting hardware and software development. Public investments are increasingly aimed at ensuring national capabilities in quantum tech, with funding often tied to strategic and security priorities.

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In 2024, industry capital expenditure accounted for about 32 per cent of the total QC market size, signalling strong private-sector confidence in the tech’s future.

While most quantum-computing-specific companies are not yet profitable, they are steadily moving towards monetising their innovations. Currently, component manufacturers—which supply parts applicable to multiple quantum hardware platforms—capture the largest share of market value. However, as hardware capabilities advance and applications become commercially viable, this balance is expected to tilt towards the companies developing complete quantum systems and solutions.

The report underscores that this early commercialisation stage is critical for creating viable business models, building customer bases, and preparing the infrastructure for scaled adoption.

Industry potential and high-value use cases of quantum computing

McKinsey’s analysis suggests that quantum computing could unlock US$0.9 trillion to US$2.0 trillion in economic value by 2035, through additional revenues and cost savings. Four sectors are poised to capture the largest share of these benefits:

– Global energy and materials
– Pharmaceuticals and medical products
– Financial services
– Travel, transport, and logistics

These industries present US$1 trillion to US$2 trillion in use-case opportunities, with acceleration expected in the next five to ten years as QC technology reaches greater operational stability and scalability.

Investment landscape: startups and public funding surge

A buoyant investment climate supports the push towards revenue generation. Funding for quantum technology startups surged 50 per cent year-on-year to US$2 billion in 2024. Over 80 per cent of all quantum investments targeted quantum computing, with superconducting tech and photonic networks receiving the highest allocations.

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Public funding also grew significantly, rising by 19 percentage points from 2023 to 2024. Early 2025 saw public investment announcements exceeding US$10 billion globally, including a landmark US$7.4 billion quantum initiative from Japan. This level of funding reflects not just commercial promise but also geopolitical interest in quantum capabilities.

Investors are increasingly backing emerging startups (less than four years old) and mature companies (over eight years old), while moving away from the “scaling” bracket of firms aged four to eight years. This signals a dual strategy of pursuing high-risk, high-return opportunities at the earliest stages and betting on established players with proven track records.

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