The roaring ’20s was the era of wealth, tech innovation, and cultural movement. The Gatsby-like lifestyle that is quintessential of this decade came with economic prosperity and an uninhibited way of life.

And uninhibited it was, with consumerism being at an all-time high. Combine this with a surge in technological innovation, and you could see television-sets, radios, and cars in every household. Between all this prosperity and the ending of the First World War, what remains forgotten is the pandemic that infected a third of the world’s population – the Spanish Flu.

Looking back at 1918 towards the end of World War I, influenza caused more deaths than the war that led to it. The disease started off with a hundred soldiers. Six months later, 14,000 cases were reported and a month after that hundreds of thousands of cases were reported. With no vaccines or antibiotics against the disease, the only solution was quarantine, use of disinfectants and limitations on public gatherings.

Towards the beginning of 1919, the flu began easing out. But again what remains forgotten amidst all the hype around the Roaring ’20s is the severe economic downturn that preceded this time, sometimes called The Depression. The unemployment level rose from four per cent to 12 per cent, while the GNP fell by 17 per cent. Then, in August 1921 the economy started recovering and actually grew by 42 per cent in the 1920s.

If history is the best predictor of the future, will we see a return of the roaring ’20s? And if we do, what will that world look like?

Also Read: How can legacy companies future proof themselves post-pandemic?

Consumerism

We don’t need to look very far to see consumerism already infiltrating the economy. In China, the day the luxury brand Hermès opened its store in Guangzhou after lockdown, it saw US$2.7million in sales. This was the largest single-day shopping a single boutique in China has ever seen. Several malls and restaurants saw queues with some actually seeing a waitlist of three to four hours. The reason behind this “revenge spending” is nothing more than pent up demand from the lockdown and an interesting phenomenon called shibal biyong.

Shibal biyong is a Korean expression popular among millennials. It means impulse purchases such as a US$20 coffee or an expensive dress after a particularly difficult day at work or at home. These purchases are non-essential but make people feel better about a bad experience in their lives.

This desire to buy things and experiences would also be especially enhanced after the pandemic when people realise that their future can be uncertain. It may take some time for people to actually start spending straight after the pandemic depending on the economic condition.

But I believe that when the economy starts recovering there will be a shift in the mindset of people towards living an uninhibited life, similar to the Roaring ’20s where everyone was seen buying new cars, appliances and stylish clothing for the first time in history. This decade saw a total 300 per cent increase in the number of cars on the roads and the first million-dollar advertising campaign.

Innovation

With the lockdown and disruption of everyday life because of COVID-19, we are seeing a wave of digitisation around us. And this digitisation will not be a COVID-time only affair. Once people get used to the convenience and ease of digital services, there is no going back.

Also Read: Lessons from a travel tech startup founder on navigating the pandemic-stricken business landscape

This impact of digitisation can also clearly be seen reflected in the stock market. In January of this year, the FAANG stocks accounted for 14 per cent of the S&P. By April alone, these stocks jumped up to accounting for 24 per cent of the S&P index. This shift towards innovation through digitisation is similar to what was seen during the Roaring ’20s.

Healthcare is one major area where we are seeing innovation. The obvious advancements have been the use of telemedicine and telehealth globally. Apart from that, we are also seeing AI being explored as a means of diagnosis, envisioning, and curing COVID-19. The widespread use of these developments will create a lasting shift in the healthcare industry.

This is similar to the 1920s, where several monumental advancements were made in the field of healthcare, which is still being used today. These ranged from simple innovations like Band-Aids (1920) to bigger discoveries like that of insulin (1921).

Process automation is another area that is seeing a rapid change. Robotics and artificial intelligence have already started being used in factories. Supply chains that were previously part of the unorganised sector are now moving towards digitisation at a rapid pace to maximise efficiency. Similarly, in the 1920s Henry Ford popularised the Model T Assembly Line that moved from the then-traditional to a more automated process of mass production.

Communication is also seeing a shift from the perspective of machines. There has been a surge in Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communication during COVID-19. This is attributed to the rise of the contactless economy. Facial recognition and location tracking are becoming increasingly acceptable and will continue to do so as we head towards a more IOT-centric world. The 1920s also saw a shift in communication. The difference was that it was a Human-to-Machine (H2M) form of communication through the means of televisions and radios.

While this list of innovations is by no means exhaustive, we can clearly see that there is a shift happening in the world that was similar to the 1920s.

Also Read: Fixing what is broken: What organisations can learn from the pandemic

As someone who believes in drawing lessons from history, I believe that it is important to look at the light at the end of the tunnel. If the world was able to move past the Spanish Flu and the Great Depression only to see unprecedented growth, we will not only be able to move past COVID-19 but also be able to reap the innovations that were necessitated during this time.

There will be some changes that will happen during this time that will change our lives drastically. The only thing we can do is keep our eyes open while going up this roller-coaster and get ready for the ride that will be the next Roaring ’20s.

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