Wall Street’s volatility spills into crypto: TradFi’s domino effect

Key highlights:

The recent retreat in global risk sentiment, sparked by a cascade of events that began with a disappointing outlook from retail titan Walmart. This development, coupled with a slew of economic data and policy commentary, has painted a multifaceted picture of where markets might be headed.

Let me walk you through what’s happening, why it matters, and what it could mean for investors, consumers, and the broader economic landscape.

The news broke earlier this week when Walmart, a bellwether for the US consumer economy, issued guidance that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. The retail giant projected net sales growth of just three per cent for the current year, a figure that rattled investors who had grown accustomed to more robust forecasts from the world’s largest retailer. Walmart cited an “uncertain geopolitical landscape” as a key factor, pointing to ongoing tariff jitters and broader economic headwinds.

Shares of the company dropped over six per cent in response, dragging down the Dow Jones Industrials and sending ripples through the Consumer Discretionary sector, which shed 1.2 per cent according to the MSCI US index. Financials weren’t spared either, declining 1.6 per cent, as the broader MSCI US index slipped 0.4 per cent. This wasn’t just a Walmart story—it was a signal that investors were starting to question the resilience of the US consumer and the economy at large.

Adding fuel to these concerns, the latest US jobless claims data didn’t offer much reassurance. Both initial and continuing claims rose week-over-week, coming in slightly above what analysts had anticipated. While the uptick was modest—described by some economists as “trivial” or “just noise”—it nonetheless chipped away at the narrative of a rock-solid labor market.

For months, the US economy has been buoyed by a tight jobs picture, with unemployment hovering near historic lows. But even small cracks in that foundation can amplify worries, especially when paired with Walmart’s cautious outlook. After all, if the labor market starts to wobble, consumer spending—the engine of the US economy—could follow suit, hitting retailers like Walmart hardest.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s voice has added another layer of nuance to this unfolding story. St. Louis Fed President Raphael Musalem weighed in with a sobering take, arguing that monetary policy should remain “modestly restrictive” until inflation is firmly on track to hit the central bank’s two per cent target. Despite recent data showing inflation cooling somewhat and the labor market holding steady, Musalem isn’t convinced the battle is won.

He warned that the risks of inflation stalling above two per cent—or even climbing higher—are “skewed to the upside.” This hawkish stance suggests the Fed isn’t ready to pivot to rate cuts anytime soon, a prospect that’s kept markets on edge. Investors had been hoping for a more dovish signal, especially after a string of solid economic reports, but Musalem’s comments underscore the Fed’s laser focus on price stability, even if it means squeezing the economy a bit longer.

Also Read: The future of job market: Dramatic changes and cultural shifts

The bond market reflected this tension. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note slipped 3 basis points overnight to 4.50 per cent, a subtle but telling move. Over the past week, yields have declined in four out of five sessions, pulling back from the upper end of their recent range.

This shift hints at a market that’s recalibrating—moving away from fears of runaway inflation and toward a more neutral outlook. With tariff details still murky and the US data calendar looking light until the January PCE inflation report drops on February 28, yields might stay anchored around 4.50 per cent for now. That stability could offer a breather for equity markets, but it’s hardly a green light for a sustained rally.

On the currency front, the Japanese yen stole the spotlight, surging to its strongest level against the dollar since December. Speculation is rife that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might hike rates sooner than expected, a move that would mark a significant shift from its long-standing ultra-loose policy.

The yen’s strength weighed on the US Dollar Index, which slid 0.8 per cent to 106.4. Gold, meanwhile, edged up 0.2per cent, inching closer to the US$3,000 mark as safe-haven demand ticked higher amid the uncertainty. Brent crude also nudged up 0.5 per cent to US$77 per barrel, buoyed by a mix of supply concerns and cautious optimism about global demand. Asian equity indices, however, were a mixed bag in early trading, reflecting the uneven sentiment rippling across markets.

Now, let’s pivot to an intriguing subplot in the financial world: the SEC’s approval of a yield-bearing stablecoin from Figure Certificate Co., dubbed YLDs. Unlike traditional stablecoins like Tether’s USDT, which generate billions in reserve income for issuers but offer no yield to holders, YLDs promise to share the wealth. By investing reserves in US Treasuries and commercial paper, Figure aims to deliver returns to investors while maintaining the stablecoin’s peg to the dollar.

The SEC’s decision to classify YLDs as “certificates” under securities regulations sets a new precedent, distinguishing them from the unregulated wild west of other crypto assets. This move could shake up the stablecoin market, offering a model that balances stability with profitability—a rare combo in the crypto space.

Speaking of crypto, the broader market is grappling with its own demons. Nearly a quarter of the top 200 cryptocurrencies have hit their lowest levels in over a year, with 24 per cent tumbling to 365-day lows after a sharp decline on February 7. Analysts are split on what this means.

Some, like Juan Pellicer from IntoTheBlock, see it as a temporary correction—a healthy shakeout after a period of exuberance. Others aren’t so sure, warning that this could signal a deeper capitulation, reminiscent of past bear markets. The debate over whether crypto is in a bull or bear cycle rages on, but one thing’s clear: sentiment is fragile, and these price drops are testing the resolve of even the most ardent believers.

Also Read: Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

So, what’s my take on all this? I see a world in flux, where optimism and caution are locked in a tug-of-war. Walmart’s warning is a red flag, no doubt—it’s hard to ignore when a company that touches millions of consumers signals trouble ahead. Pair that with rising jobless claims, and you’ve got a recipe for unease.

But I’m not ready to call it a full-blown crisis just yet. The labour market still has muscle, and the Fed’s steady hand—while frustrating for growth-hungry investors—shows a commitment to avoiding the inflationary spirals of the past. The pullback in Treasury yields and the yen’s strength suggest markets are finding a new equilibrium, not plunging into chaos.

The YLDs stablecoin experiment fascinates me—it’s a glimpse of how crypto might evolve beyond speculative mania into something more practical and regulated. As for the broader crypto downturn, I lean toward the correction camp. Markets need to breathe, and this could be a reset before the next leg up—or down.

Ultimately, we’re in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer signals on tariffs, inflation, and Fed policy. Until then, expect volatility, but don’t bet on a collapse just yet. The data’s too mixed, and the world’s too resilient, for that.

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