The US-Japan trade deal stands out as a major driver, signalling stronger economic ties between two of the world’s largest economies. Over the weekend, the US and the European Union also finalised a trade agreement, albeit one that introduces 15 per cent tariffs on European exports to the US.
Despite the tariffs, the resolution of this deal has been broadly welcomed as a step toward easing trade tensions, fostering a risk-on environment where investors feel emboldened to dive into equities and step back from safe-haven assets like gold.
I see a complex but largely encouraging picture emerging, though one that’s not without its potential pitfalls. Let’s talk about it.
Trade deals fuelling optimism
The US-Japan trade agreement has injected a dose of positivity into global markets. By reducing uncertainties and paving the way for increased trade, this deal promises to strengthen economic activity between these two powerhouses.
Japan, a major player in manufacturing and technology, stands to benefit from easier access to US markets, while American firms could see new opportunities in Japan. This development aligns with a broader narrative of thawing trade relations, which had been strained in recent years by tit-for-tat tariffs and geopolitical friction.
Meanwhile, the US-EU trade deal adds another layer to the story. The inclusion of 15 per cent tariffs on European exports might seem like a wrinkle, but the fact that negotiators reached an agreement at all has outweighed that concern for many investors. After months of saber-rattling and fears of an all-out trade war, this deal offers a measure of stability. It suggests that both sides prefer cooperation over confrontation, even if the terms aren’t perfect.
Also Read: Markets on the move: Trade talks, housing slumps, and crypto whales stirring
This resolution reflects a pragmatic approach by the Trump administration, avoiding the escalation that markets had braced for. The tariffs will undoubtedly raise costs for some European exporters, but the clarity provided by the deal could encourage businesses to adapt and invest with greater confidence.
US markets riding the wave
The US stock markets have wasted no time capitalising on this upbeat mood. The S&P 500 climbed 0.40 per cent to notch a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq followed suit with a 0.24 per cent gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also joined the rally, posting a 0.47 per cent increase.
These gains underscore the strength of the US corporate sector, which has delivered a solid earnings season so far. Companies across industries have reported resilient profits, defying earlier worries about slowing growth. For investors, this combination of strong fundamentals and positive trade news has been a green light to push equities higher.
The VIX, often dubbed Wall Street’s fear gauge, offers another clue to the prevailing sentiment. It slipped from 15.39 to 14.93, a modest but meaningful drop that signals reduced anxiety about market volatility.
Historically, a VIX below 20 indicates a relatively calm market, and this easing aligns with the risk-on vibe. This decline reflects a collective sigh of relief among traders, who see fewer immediate threats on the horizon. However, it’s worth noting that the VIX remains above its long-term average, suggesting that some underlying caution persists.
Bond yields and the dollar tell a mixed story
In contrast to the stock market’s exuberance, US Treasury yields have painted a more complicated picture. The 10-year yield edged down by 0.8 basis points to 4.388 per cent, while the two-year yield ticked up by 0.7 basis points to 3.923 per cent. This divergence hints at differing expectations for the short and long term.
The dip in the 10-year yield suggests that investors anticipate stable or even lower interest rates over the longer haul, perhaps due to confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to keep inflation in check. Conversely, the slight rise in the 2-year yield could reflect near-term uncertainty, possibly tied to upcoming economic data or speculation about rate hikes.
The US Dollar Index, up 0.28 per cent, has also benefited from this environment. A stronger dollar often accompanies positive sentiment about the US economy, and the trade deals have reinforced that narrative.
Meanwhile, gold took a hit, dropping 0.93 per cent as investors shed safe-haven assets in favour of riskier bets. Brent crude oil also slipped 1.1 per cent to US$68 per barrel, which might signal concerns about global demand despite the trade optimism.
Asian markets and crypto add context
Across the Pacific, Asian equities have shown a more cautious response. Last week, many markets closed lower as investors eyed this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the approaching US trade tariff deadline.
Today’s early trading saw a mixed start, contrasting with US equity index futures, which point to a higher open stateside. This regional divergence suggests that while the US enjoys a tailwind, Asia remains wary of unresolved trade issues and their local economic implications.
Also Read: What’s next for markets: Navigating trade threats, earnings, crypto and central bank signals
The cryptocurrency market, however, has mirrored the broader risk-on sentiment with its flair. Bitcoin, hovering near US$119,000, shrugged off a massive sale by Galaxy Digital, which unloaded 80,000 BTC worth over US$9 billion for a Satoshi-era investor.
Prices dipped briefly from $118,000 to $115,000 before bouncing back by Sunday. Analysts point to this resilience as evidence of Bitcoin’s maturation into a liquid, robust market. It’s a testament to how far the crypto industry has come since its volatile early days.
Ethereum, meanwhile, has stolen the spotlight. It’s spot ETFs raked in US$1.85 billion in net inflows for the week ending July 25, 2025, dwarfing Bitcoin ETFs’ US$72.06 million. Over the past three weeks, Ethereum ETFs have amassed US$4.94 billion, bringing their total net assets to US$20.66 billion.
This surge ties into what some refer to as the Utility Season narrative, where investors are drawn to Ethereum’s versatility in decentralised finance, NFTs, and beyond. Bitcoin’s store-of-value appeal remains strong, but Ethereum’s growth hints at a shift toward assets with broader functionality. I see this as a fascinating evolution in how investors weigh risk and reward.
What’s next?
From my perspective, the global risk sentiment feels like a tightrope walk. The trade deals and US earnings have laid a solid foundation, but the mixed signals from bonds, Asia, and commodities remind us that confidence is fragile.
The crypto market’s strength, particularly Ethereum’s rise, adds an intriguing dimension, suggesting that risk appetite extends beyond traditional assets.
Looking ahead, this week promises a deluge of data that could either solidify or shake this optimism. The US second-quarter GDP report, the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and the July jobs report will provide a clearer view of the economy’s health.
Monetary policy decisions from the US, Canada, and Japan will also loom large, as central banks grapple with growth and inflation. The August 1 reciprocal tariff deadline adds another wildcard; any misstep could dent the current mood.
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