Key highlights:

• Global financial markets remain uncertain amid central bank indecision
• Corporate earnings and new US tariffs set to impact investor sentiment
• Energy markets show resilience, while equities and bonds signal caution
• Bitcoin sentiment is weak, while Ethereum shows potential for recovery
• April 2 tariffs could be a major turning point for global markets

The global financial landscape today, March 21, 2025, is a complex tapestry woven with threads of uncertainty, cautious optimism, and shifting economic priorities. Let’s unpack this and offer my perspective on what’s driving these dynamics, where things might be headed, and what it all means for investors, policymakers, and everyday people keeping an eye on their financial futures.

Global risk sentiment and central bank ambiguity

The global risk sentiment being described as “tentative” feels like an apt reflection of the moment we’re in. Central bank meetings, which are typically a cornerstone for market stability, seem to have left us with more ambiguity than clarity. It’s not uncommon for these gatherings—whether it’s the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or others—to set the tone for monetary policy expectations, influencing everything from interest rates to currency strength.

But when they raise “more questions than answers,” as the Market Wrap notes, it signals a lack of consensus or a hesitancy to commit to bold moves. Perhaps central bankers are grappling with the same uncertainties as the rest of us: inflationary pressures that refuse to fully subside, geopolitical tensions exacerbated by trade policies, and a global economy that’s still finding its footing post-pandemic.

My take is that this ambiguity is less about indecision and more about a deliberate wait-and-see approach. Central banks are likely holding their cards close, waiting for clearer signals from corporate earnings and trade developments before making significant policy shifts.

Corporate earnings, tariffs, and market reactions

Speaking of corporate earnings, they’re poised to be the next big litmus test for the markets. Investors are hungry for guidance, and rightly so. With tariff fears casting a long shadow, the performance of major companies could either bolster confidence or deepen the unease.

In the US, where the MSCI US index slipped by 0.2 per cent, the energy sector’s modest 0.4 per cent gain stands out as a bright spot. This uptick aligns with the rise in Brent crude prices to US$75 per barrel, fuelled by OPEC+’s new schedule for oil output cuts.

It’s a reminder that energy markets remain a critical driver of sentiment, especially as supply constraints—like the US sanctions on a Chinese refinery tied to Iranian oil—tighten the screws further. For American investors, the upcoming earnings season will be a chance to see if companies can navigate these headwinds, particularly with new tariffs looming on the horizon.

Those tariffs, announced by US President Donald Trump to take effect on April 2, are a game-changer. The promise of both broad reciprocal tariffs and sector-specific measures suggests a continuation of his administration’s aggressive trade stance.

From my perspective, this move is less about economic protectionism in a vacuum and more about geopolitical leverage. Trump’s strategy seems to hinge on using tariffs as a bargaining chip—pressuring trading partners into concessions while signaling strength to domestic audiences. The timing, just over a week from now, adds urgency to the mix.

Also Read: Tariffs, Fed moves, and crypto: Navigating a volatile March 2025

Markets hate uncertainty, and with Asian equities already showing mixed responses and US equity futures pointing to a flat open, it’s clear that investors are bracing for turbulence. The delay of the European Union’s proposed tariff on American whiskey this week feels like a small reprieve, perhaps a diplomatic nod to avoid escalating tensions further, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the broader tariff storm brewing.

In China, the focus on bellwethers like Xiaomi Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. is particularly telling. These tech giants have been at the heart of China’s recent stock surge, a rally that’s defied global headwinds to some extent. Investors are now asking whether this momentum is sustainable or if it’s a house of cards built on speculative exuberance.

My view is that China’s market resilience reflects a mix of domestic policy support and a pivot by companies to diversify away from US-centric supply chains—a direct response to past tariff pressures. Xiaomi’s push into emerging markets and Tencent’s dominance in digital ecosystems could provide the earnings firepower needed to keep the rally alive. But if these reports disappoint, it might expose cracks in China’s economic facade, especially as US sanctions and tariffs tighten the noose on key sectors like refining.

Financial indicators and the energy-crypto divide

Shifting to the financial indicators, the US Treasury yields dropping—with the 10-year at 4.24 per cent and the 2-year at 3.96 per cent—suggests a flight to safety amid the uncertainty. Lower yields typically signal that investors are seeking the relative security of government bonds over riskier assets, a trend reinforced by the US Dollar index’s 0.4 per cent gain as it consolidates recent losses. Gold holding firm above US$3,000 per ounce further underscores this cautious mood—it’s the classic safe-haven play.

Yet, there’s a paradox here: Brent crude’s 1.7 per cent rise indicates that not all risk assets are out of favour. My interpretation is that we’re seeing a bifurcated market—energy and commodities holding up due to supply-side dynamics, while equities and bonds reflect broader trepidation about growth prospects.

Now, let’s dive into the cryptocurrency angle, which adds another layer of intrigue. Bitcoin’s market sentiment hitting a two-year low, as per CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index of 20, is a stark warning. This index, blending ten metrics like network activity and investor behaviour, paints a picture of a “weak environment” unlikely to support a sustained rally.

Historically, Bitcoin needs a score above 60 to fuel significant price surges, and prolonged periods below 40 align with bear markets. As someone who’s tracked crypto’s rollercoaster ride, I see this as a natural ebb in the cycle. The euphoria of past bull runs—often tied to macroeconomic stimulus or institutional adoption—has given way to a sober reality.

Regulatory scrutiny, energy cost debates, and now tariff-induced economic uncertainty could be dampening enthusiasm. For Bitcoin holders, this might feel like a gut punch, but it’s not necessarily a death knell. Markets move in waves, and a bearish phase could set the stage for a stronger rebound if fundamentals like adoption or halving effects kick in later.

Also Read: When tariffs danced with Bitcoin and markets held their breath

Ethereum, meanwhile, offers a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. Its price hovering around US$1,970, with a key support level at US$1,861, suggests resilience. The nine per cent recovery earlier this week, followed by a 3.5 per cent dip, shows volatility but also potential. If that US$1,861 support holds, a push toward the March 7 high of US$2,258 isn’t out of the question. The technicals back this up: the RSI climbing to 40 from an oversold 30 indicates fading bearish momentum, though it needs to break 50 for a confirmed recovery.

The MACD’s bullish crossover and rising green histograms above zero add to the case for upward strength. From my standpoint, Ethereum’s outlook hinges on broader market sentiment and its ability to differentiate itself from Bitcoin’s struggles. If tariff fears ease or corporate earnings surprise to the upside, ETH could ride that wave. But a break below US$1,861 would open the door to a drop toward US$1,700—a level that could test the resolve of even the most ardent HODLers.

The interconnectedness of markets

Stepping back, what strikes me most about this Market Wrap is the interconnectedness of it all. Tariffs don’t just affect trade balances; they ripple through equity markets, commodity prices, and even cryptocurrencies. Central bank hesitancy amplifies the noise, leaving corporate earnings as the next beacon.

My point of view is cautiously pragmatic: we’re in a transitional phase where old playbooks—whether for stocks, bonds, or crypto—are being rewritten. Investors should watch China’s tech giants for signs of durability, lean into energy’s relative strength, and brace for tariff-driven volatility. For crypto enthusiasts, patience might be the best strategy—Bitcoin’s malaise and Ethereum’s teetering recovery suggest a market in purgatory, awaiting a catalyst.

In conclusion, the global economy today feels like a tightrope walk. The stakes are high, and the safety net is fraying. I see my role as cutting through the noise to spotlight the data and trends that matter. Right now, that means recognising the weight of tariffs, the pivotal role of earnings, and the fragile state of risk assets like crypto.

We’re not in freefall, but we’re not on solid ground either—April 2, when those tariffs hit, could be the tipping point that defines the next chapter.

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