Key points:
- President Donald Trump announces new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.
- US Dollar Index surges 1.3 per cent, as inflation concerns rise with tariffs acting as indirect taxes.
- Gold peaks at US$2,817.18/oz before settling lower, while WTI crude jumps 1.6 per cent on tariff speculation.
- Bitcoin tumbles over five per cent in a day, with major cryptocurrencies collectively losing US$1 billion in futures liquidations.
- Canada and Mexico retaliate with counter-tariffs, while China prepares to challenge the US at the WTO.
3 February 2025 started with turbulence in the global markets; President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has sent ripples of concern through markets worldwide. As these measures take effect on Tuesday, February 4th, the economic landscape braces for impact, with Canada and Mexico swiftly responding with counter-tariffs and China preparing to challenge the move at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This scenario is not just a test of economic resilience; it’s a litmus test for the global community’s ability to navigate through politically charged economic policies.
The immediate aftermath of Trump’s tariff declarations was a clear retreat in global risk sentiment. The MSCI US index saw a 0.5 per cent drop, with the energy sector suffering the most, plummeting by 2.7 per cent. This sector’s sensitivity to trade policies stems from the direct impact tariffs have on oil and gas imports from Canada and Mexico.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury market showed a mixed response; the 10-year yield rose slightly by 2.2 basis points before retracting in Asian sessions, while the 2-year yield fluctuated, reflecting the market’s divided views on the short-term economic implications of these tariffs.
The US Dollar Index surged by 0.5 per cent to close at 108.37 on Friday, with an additional 1.3 per cent increase in early Asian trading. This spike can be attributed to the anticipation of inflationary pressures that could compel the Federal Reserve to maintain, if not increase, interest rates. Inflation fears are not unfounded; tariffs essentially act as taxes on imports, potentially increasing prices for goods both at home and abroad.
Gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven, briefly touched a record high of US$2,817.18 per ounce but settled at US$2,798.41, still reflecting investor anxiety amidst this economic uncertainty. Conversely, oil prices reacted positively late in the trading session after Trump hinted at forthcoming tariffs on crude imports, pushing WTI up by 1.6 per cent to US$73.70 per barrel.
Also Read: Gold rises and tech falls: A tale of two markets
In Asia, the economic narrative was not much brighter. China’s manufacturing PMI, a key indicator of industrial activity, continued its downward trend for the second month, highlighting the vulnerability of the world’s second-largest economy to external trade pressures. This, coupled with the looming tariffs, has cast a shadow over Asian equity markets, which opened lower in response.
The cryptocurrency market, often seen as a barometer for speculative risk, has not been spared from this wave of economic caution. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, took a significant hit, dropping over five per cent in a single day and shedding eight per cent over the week to hover around US$96,879.
This decline was echoed across other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, with the market witnessing US$1 billion in futures liquidations within 24 hours. The fear here is not just the immediate impact of tariffs but also the broader economic uncertainty they herald, potentially affecting consumer spending and, by extension, investment in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
From my perspective, these developments underscore a critical moment for global trade dynamics. The imposition of these tariffs, while aimed at addressing issues like the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigration, might inadvertently lead to a broader economic confrontation. The retaliatory measures by Canada and Mexico, combined with China’s legal challenge at the WTO, could morph this into a full-blown trade war, the likes of which we’ve seen in recent years but with potentially more severe implications.
The immediate advice for investors would be to adopt a cautious stance, focusing on diversification and perhaps moving towards more stable, less tariff-sensitive assets. However, this situation also presents an opportunity for strategic investments in sectors that might benefit from domestic manufacturing incentives or those that are less exposed to international trade frictions.
Ultimately, the global economy is at a crossroads where political decisions are increasingly dictating economic outcomes. The true cost of these tariffs might not just be in the immediate market reactions but in the long-term damage to international trade relations and global economic stability. As we navigate these stormy seas, the call for dialogue and cooperation between nations has never been more urgent, lest we all sink into the depths of protectionism and economic isolation.
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