The extended downturn in Southeast Asia’s tech investment market has played out unevenly across different deal stages, revealing a distorted picture of market health due to the increased reliance on private debt and convertible notes.
While investment volumes have plummeted, median valuations and deal sizes surprisingly held up across stages well into the second half of 2024.
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Per a Cento Ventures report, this perceived stability, however, was less a sign of market strength and more a distortion of the underlying correction. The rising use of private debt and convertible notes, often not reflected in standard public datasets, kept the number of priced equity rounds unusually low. This financial cushioning mechanism has obscured the true pace of the correction, despite a noticeable spike in startup closures and founders scrambling to achieve profitability.
The mismatch is apparent: headlines often hint at an “over-correction,” yet the valuations on record still appear sticky. The market is not yet clearing because founders have been reluctant to reset their valuation expectations, while investors are equally hesitant to meet those expectations. Debt instruments have provided a temporary bridge across this gap.
The core stack collapses
The capital cycle demonstrated sharp differences in pace across the venture stack:
- Series C+ deals slowed sharply as early as the second half of 2022, primarily due to the contraction in the supply of mega-deal capital. This gradual slowdown in Series B and C continued throughout 2022–2024, influenced by SEA-centric funds slowing down their deployment.
- Seed and pre-Series A stages initially saw a surge, buoyed by later-stage funds moving downstream in search of value, but this activity slowed dramatically by the first half of 2024.
- Series A and B stages proved the most resilient, holding up the longest, and only beginning to show a steep decline towards the second half of 2024.
The most concerning development arrived in mid-2024, marking a full reset of core investment activity back to 2016 levels. The previously stable seed to early Series B part of the core stack collapsed abruptly to one-third of its volume recorded during the 2021-2022 boom.
The subsequent decline was sharpest in the seed and pre-Series A segment (deals ranging from US$0.5 million to US$3 million), which reached a new low for the region after peaking in the first half of 2023. Similarly, the Series A to early B segment (deals greater than US$3 million up to US$10 million) was down by 50 per cent year-on-year.
Valuation and deal size nuances
Despite the drastic reduction in volume, median valuations did not experience a uniform collapse, thanks largely to the low number of priced rounds.
For pre-Series A deals, the median pre-money valuation held steady at US$5 million in 2024, showing zero per cent change compared to 2023. However, the median deal size for pre-SeriesA doubled in 2024 compared to 2023, reaching US$1 million, even as deal volume dwindled. This suggests that only larger, highly selective pre-A rounds were being completed.
Series A median valuation reached US$20 million in 2024, an increase of 5 per cent over 2023. This slight uptick towards the end of H2 2024 was partially attributed to increased liquidity made available by the Malaysian government’s fund-of-funds initiatives. Median Series A deal size remained stable at US$4.0 million between 2023 and 2024.
Series B median valuation saw a significant adjustment in 2022, dropping from US$90 million to US$55 million. In 2024, however, Series B median valuation increased by 17 per cent year-on-year, reaching US$52.0 million. This rise was primarily driven by pricier deals in the health-tech and Digital Financial Services sectors during the second half of 2024.
In contrast to the valuation rise, the Series B median deal size continued its gradual slide, falling to US$8 million in 2024, reflecting how capital from later-stage funds no longer “spilled over” into earlier stages.
The relative stability in valuations indicates that the supply of and demand for early-stage venture deals have declined at similar rates following the major adjustment of 2022.
Shifting country valuations
A look at country-specific Series A median valuations shows a convergence towards the US$20 million to US$25 million range. By 2024, the valuation gap between the lowest median (Thailand) and the highest (the Philippines) was 2.9X. Indonesia’s Series A valuations remained relatively stable despite the overall market slowdown, aided by increased bridge financing and venture debt that helped companies avoid downrounds. Malaysia stood out as one of only two markets with rising Series A valuations in 2024.
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Series B valuations also showed significant growth in several key markets for 2024. The Philippines saw a massive 85 per cent increase in Series B median valuation, while Indonesia saw a 25 per cent rise, and Malaysia witnessed a huge 102 per cent increase in 2024 compared to 2023.
This suggests that only the strongest companies, or “market survivors”, secured priced Series B rounds in 2024, creating an upward shift in market averages across these regions. However, the continuous use of venture debt and bridge financing rounds caused a continuous drop in Series B deal volume, reducing the clarity of the valuation signal.
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