Global risk sentiment holds steady, yet an undercurrent of caution persists, shaped by a blend of robust economic data, trade policy turbulence, and a Federal Reserve that refuses to tip its hand.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently signalled that no firm decision has been reached for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, leaving investors guessing about the likelihood of a rate cut. With interest rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent for the fifth consecutive meeting, the Fed aligns with market expectations but offers little clarity on its next move.

Meanwhile, economic indicators like a strong US GDP and employment figures paint an optimistic picture, only to be muddied by new tariffs and a volatile commodity market. Add to this mix the evolving cryptocurrency narrative, highlighted by Bitcoin’s potential to hit US$141,000, and the stakes for understanding these dynamics grow even higher. What does this all mean for traditional markets and digital assets alike? I will try to explain.

Global risk sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s stance

Global risk sentiment remains balanced, neither plunging into panic nor surging with unchecked optimism. This stability stems from a tug-of-war between encouraging economic signals and unsettling policy developments.

The Federal Reserve plays a central role in this narrative. By maintaining rates at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent, the Fed reinforces a wait-and-see posture, a decision that met market forecasts but left room for debate. Two voting members dissented, the most since 1993, hinting at internal divisions over the path forward.

Powell’s remarks during the post-meeting news conference underscored this uncertainty, dampening expectations for a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a cut dropped to 47 per cent from 63 per cent just a day prior, reflecting a market recalibration after the Fed’s cautious tone collided with upbeat economic data.

This steady sentiment faces pressure from external forces. New tariffs on India and Brazil, coupled with the removal of the “de minimis” exemption for small packages, signal a tougher US stance on trade. The White House’s proclamation of 50 per cent tariffs on “processed” copper (but not “refined” copper) starting August 1st sent shockwaves through commodity markets, with Comex copper prices plummeting by as much as 20 per cent at one point.

Also Read: Global sentiment lifts off: The US-EU agreement’s ripple through stocks, commodities, and digital currencies

These moves threaten to disrupt global supply chains and stoke inflation, challenges the Fed must weigh as it plots its course. For now, the central bank opts for patience, balancing the vigour of the US economy against these looming risks.

Economic data: A bright spot amid uncertainty

The US economy offers compelling reasons for optimism. Second-quarter GDP growth clocked in at a robust 3.0 per cent quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate, surpassing expectations and signalling resilience. July’s ADP employment report added to the good news, revealing a surprising 104,000 new private-sector jobs.

These figures suggest a labor market and broader economy that continue to defy slowdown fears, providing a counterweight to global uncertainties. Investors and policymakers alike find reassurance in these numbers, which bolster the case for the Fed’s steady-hand approach.

Yet, this strength does not exist in a vacuum. Rising Treasury yields hint at underlying concerns. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.370 per cent, while the 2-year yield jumped 7.2 basis points to 3.941 per cent. Higher yields often reflect expectations of inflation or a belief that rate cuts remain distant, both of which align with the Fed’s current rhetoric and the tariff-driven pressures on prices.

The US Dollar Index advanced 0.93 per cent, buoyed by the Fed’s stance and perhaps some safe-haven demand amid trade tensions. Gold, typically a refuge in uncertain times, slipped 1.5 per cent to US$3,275 per ounce, possibly due to the stronger dollar or profit-taking after recent gains. Brent crude oil, however, rose 1.0 per cent to US$73 per barrel after President Trump threatened tariffs on India over its energy purchases from Russia, a reminder of how geopolitics can sway commodity prices.

Market reactions: A mixed bag

US stock markets mirrored the broader uncertainty, closing with varied results. The S&P 500 dipped 0.12 per cent, the Dow Jones fell 0.38 per cent, and the NASDAQ eked out a 0.15 per cent gain. This patchwork performance reflects investor efforts to parse positive economic data against trade policy risks.

In Asia, early trading showed similarly mixed equity indices, while US equity futures pointed to an indecisive opening. The day ahead promises more clues, with China’s July manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, alongside Taiwan and Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP figures, set to influence sentiment further. These releases could either reinforce the steady outlook or tip the scales toward caution, depending on their strength.

Commodity markets, meanwhile, felt the tariff fallout acutely. The copper price collapse underscores how swiftly policy shifts can ripple through global trade. Such volatility could feed into inflation, challenging the Fed’s efforts to maintain stability. For now, markets navigate a landscape where economic growth coexists with policy-induced turbulence, leaving investors on edge but not in retreat.

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency angle

Bitcoin offers a compelling subplot in this financial drama. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlights US$141,000 as a potential next significant resistance if Bitcoin breaks higher with conviction. This projection ties to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which tracks the average acquisition price for investors holding coins for less than 155 days.

Also Read: From strategic reserve to everyday use: Navigating Bitcoin’s next chapter

Currently at US$105,400, this level shows STHs enjoying an 11.5 per cent unrealised profit at recent prices. Historically, trading above this basis signals bullish momentum, a pattern Bitcoin has followed since breaching it earlier this year.

Glassnode’s analysis adds depth with standard deviation bands. The +1 SD band, at US$125,100, has repeatedly capped Bitcoin’s upward moves, with two rejections in recent months. A decisive break above this could target the +2 SD level at US$141,600, where STH profits would swell, possibly triggering profit-taking and new resistance. For now, Bitcoin hovers between US$105,000 and US$125,000, a range that may hold until a catalyst, be it policy or market sentiment, sparks a breakout.

The Fed’s announcement and Powell’s remarks dented cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin sliding in afternoon trading. This sensitivity to monetary policy underscores Bitcoin’s role as a barometer for risk appetite and expectations of Fed action. Matthew Sigel of VanEck argues Bitcoin serves as a hedge against monetary debasement, suggesting that signals of easier policy could ignite crypto enthusiasm.

Historical data support this: Bitcoin rose after four of the year’s prior FOMC meetings, though it dipped post-June before recovering. Lower rates, by reducing borrowing costs, often drive investment into alternative assets like Bitcoin, a dynamic worth watching if the Fed shifts gears.

The White House’s digital asset vision

The White House’s new report, Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology, adds another layer to the crypto story. Compiled by the Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, it champions digital assets and blockchain as transformative forces for finance and beyond.

Legislative priorities like the Genius stablecoin act and the Clarity Act aim to provide structure. At the same time, recommendations urge the SEC and CFTC to clarify rules on trading, custody, and record-keeping at the federal level. Support for decentralised finance through safe harbors and regulatory sandboxes signals openness to innovation, a boon for the sector.

Also Read: Leading global from SEA: Lessons from scaling SaaS, cultures, and team from Amity Group’s journey

The report’s stance on a Bitcoin reserve stands out. Administered by the Treasury, this stockpile of seized digital assets will be held, not sold, as reserve assets. This move could legitimise Bitcoin further, boosting confidence among investors wary of regulatory hostility.

Conversely, the report opposes a US central bank digital currency, aligning with the Anti-CBDC Act and reinforcing a decentralised ethos that crypto advocates cherish. These developments suggest a regulatory tailwind for Bitcoin, though their full impact will unfold over time.

My take on the situation

I see a world of opportunity and risk in equal measure. The US economy’s strength, evident in GDP and jobs data, offers a solid foundation, but trade tensions and tariffs threaten to erode it. The Fed’s caution makes sense given these crosscurrents, yet its indecision leaves markets vulnerable to swings.

For traditional assets, volatility seems likely as investors grapple with these forces. Bitcoin, meanwhile, intrigues me most. Its potential to hit US$141,000 hinges on breaking key resistance, a feat that regulatory clarity and a dovish Fed could enable. The White House’s embrace of digital assets feels like a game-changer, though execution will matter.

I lean cautiously optimistic on crypto, believing its hedge appeal and policy support could shine amid uncertainty. Still, prudence dictates watching the Fed and global data closely—volatility cuts both ways.

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Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. Share your opinion by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic.

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Chocolate Finance, a Singapore-based fintech firm, has closed a US$15 million Series A+ funding round and secured a regulatory licence to operate in Hong Kong.

The funding round was led by Nikko Asset Management, with participation from returning investors Peak XV, Prosus, Saison Capital, and founder Walter de Oude.

This financial injection will be used to scale the business and innovate.

Also Read: Chocolate Finance wants to be a ‘happy place’ for Singaporeans to grow their wealth

“We have built such a great business in Singapore and helped so many people get a decent return on their cash. Now it’s time to accelerate international expansion, and this new capital allows us to progress in our regional growth aspirations,” said Walter de Oude, CEO and founder of Chocolate Finance.

“It [the funding] allows us to double down on product innovation, regional expansion, and most importantly, continuing to build a financial platform that prioritises simplicity, and just delivers what it promises – a great place for your spare cash,” he added.

Securing regulatory approval to operate in Hong Kong represents a critical step in Chocolate Finance’s regional growth strategy. This expansion will enable the company to serve users in one of Asia’s most dynamic financial hubs and provide an alternative platform for consumers to grow their idle cash, which often remains in low-interest accounts, into what they term ‘happy money’.

Founded in 2022, Chocolate Finance focuses on providing an enhanced solution for SGD and USD spare cash savings, allowing users to grow their spare cash daily with no lock-ins or complex rules. Customers can see their returns on the app daily, benefiting from simple account setup and the flexibility to spend through their linked Visa card while holding investments in SGD or USD.

Since launching in Singapore in July 2024, Chocolate Finance claims to have reached almost US$666 million in assets under management and delivered ~US$16.8 million in returns to nearly 100,000 users (the return represents the total of all returns earned across all funds and currencies by customers from July 2024 to June 2025).

The company was recently under fire following a botched rewards campaign and poor crisis management. On March 10, the firm froze instant withdrawals, later restoring them with delays, capped debit card spending at SGD250, and blocked wallet top-ups—triggering widespread customer frustration and negative sentiment online. The turmoil stemmed from a February promotion with rewards platform HeyMax, which offered air miles for card spending, including bill payments via AXS.

Also Read: Singapore’s SME fintechs face growth hurdles amid restricted API access

Usage spiked far beyond expectations, prompting Chocolate to suspend AXS payments abruptly. Founder Walter de Oude admitted the programme’s unsustainability but was criticised for poor communication.

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Salesforce’s newly released Global AI Readiness Index paints a sobering picture of Indonesia’s preparedness for an AI-powered future. Despite clear ambitions and ongoing policy initiatives, the country remains in the early stages of ecosystem development, with significant challenges in areas such as innovation, investment, and talent development.

The index, which evaluated 16 global markets across five dimensions—regulatory frameworks, AI adoption, innovation, investment, and human capital—places Indonesia in the lower tier of AI readiness overall. While the country has introduced a national AI strategy and signalled commitment to digital transformation, these intentions have yet to translate into robust infrastructure or capability.

In the area of regulatory readiness, Indonesia earned a relatively strong score of 7.6 out of 10. The country has adopted AI strategies and digital governance policies that signal a clear intent to embrace AI’s economic and societal potential. However, the report notes the absence of scale-ready institutional mechanisms and legal clarity, which remain key barriers to effective deployment.

Without frameworks that enable risk-based, globally interoperable governance, the strategies remain largely theoretical.

Indonesia’s efforts to integrate AI into public services and industry are still nascent. With a score of 6.3 in the “diffusion and adoption” dimension, the country trails behind more mature ecosystems where AI is actively reshaping service delivery and operational efficiency. Though some initiatives are underway—particularly in smart city development and industrial modernisation—the overall integration of AI into mainstream business and public sector functions remains limited.

Also Read: Indonesia’s fitness pivot: From big-box gyms at the mall to agile shophouse startups

The index’s authors recommend that governments prioritise AI adoption in public sector transformation, including revising procurement processes, investing in digital maturity, and training civil servants. Such steps, it suggests, could enable Indonesia to bridge the gap between policy design and operational impact.

Indonesia scored just 0.2 out of 10 in the innovation category, underscoring deep constraints in the research and development ecosystem. The index points to limited R&D funding, sparse academic-industry collaboration, and a lack of institutional infrastructure as core issues. These challenges have made it difficult for the country to adapt AI technologies to local needs, resulting in a high reliance on imported platforms and tools.

The findings suggest that without a stronger innovation base, Indonesia risks falling behind in the development of agentic AI systems—those capable of autonomous decision-making within digital or physical environments. To address this, the report calls for increased cross-border collaboration and shared R&D efforts, particularly in areas related to AI safety and standards.

Fragmented investment landscape, human capital inhibit scale-up

Indonesia’s investment environment for AI ventures is marked by fragmentation and low risk appetite. With a score of 0.3 out of 10 for AI investment readiness, the index highlights the limited access to growth-stage capital as a major stumbling block. National AI strategies exist, but they have not yet catalysed a supportive investor ecosystem or meaningful policy incentives.

This funding gap particularly affects small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), many of which struggle to adopt AI due to resource constraints. The index recommends targeted incentive schemes—such as cloud credits or innovation vouchers—to help lower the barriers to entry for these enterprises.

The final dimension assessed in the index—human capital, AI talent, and skills—yielded a score of 3.1 out of 10 for Indonesia. The report highlights misalignment between the education system and industry needs, a lack of applied AI training programmes, and limited opportunities for reskilling. These factors are seen as critical in explaining the country’s relatively low AI workforce readiness.

To close this gap, the report advocates for the establishment of AI centres of excellence, expanded public-private partnerships in training, and the introduction of sector-specific curricula. The goal is to build a more agile and technically competent workforce capable of supporting Indonesia’s digital ambitions.

A roadmap for transformation, not just diagnosis

Though the report stops short of offering country-specific recommendations, its six global policy guidelines are clearly applicable to Indonesia’s situation. From scaling AI in the public sector to improving governance, investing in talent, and enabling cross-border innovation, the steps outlined provide a roadmap for countries at an inflection point in their digital journey.

Indonesia, with its large population and growing digital economy, stands to benefit significantly from AI—but only if it can address the structural weaknesses that currently hold back its progress. The path forward will depend not just on strategic intent, but on sustained institutional effort, policy execution, and international collaboration.

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Singapore has ranked second globally—and first in Asia Pacific—for overall AI readiness, according to Salesforce’s newly released Global AI Readiness Index. The recognition reinforces Singapore’s longstanding leadership in artificial intelligence and underscores its national strategy’s effectiveness in laying the groundwork for the next phase of AI transformation: agentic AI.

The Salesforce index evaluates 16 key global markets using 31 indicators across governance, adoption, innovation, investment, and talent. Singapore’s high scores, particularly in AI governance and diffusion, highlight its success in fostering an enabling ecosystem through strong public-private collaboration and proactive policymaking.

As AI continues to reshape global industries, the ability of countries to harness its potential—especially agentic AI, which enables autonomous decision-making and task execution—is becoming a defining metric of economic competitiveness. For Singapore, this is not just about technology deployment; it’s about preparing its workforce and institutions for an AI-augmented future.

Brian Kealey, Country Leader at Salesforce Singapore, emphasised this direction: “The Index highlights Singapore’s success as a global leader in AI readiness, stemming from early investments in infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and human capital.”

Also Read: Chocolate Finance raises US$15M, secures Hong Kong licence amid post-crisis rebuild

Singapore achieved the top global rank in regulatory frameworks, scoring 9.8 versus a global average of 8.6. Its robust policies—such as the Model AI Governance Framework and National AI Strategy 2.0—translate principles into real-world governance via sandboxes and assurance frameworks.

The city-state also leads in AI diffusion, scoring 8.0 compared to the global average of 5.8, thanks to initiatives such as Smart Nation and AI procurement guidelines that integrate AI into urban planning, transport, and public services.

On talent, Singapore ranks third globally, backed by a national upskilling strategy. Its AI talent pipeline, while strong, still trails leaders such as Germany and the US, signaling further room for growth.

Innovation lags, but potential is high

Despite high marks across most areas, Singapore lags in AI innovation ecosystems, scoring 0.7 versus the global average of 1.7. The challenge lies in expanding beyond a concentrated innovation landscape into emerging subfields such as agentic AI—a category that could redefine productivity.

Agentic AI is seen as representing the next frontier. With potential efficiency gains of up to 30 per cent, agentic systems allow organisations to deploy autonomous agents that can work around the clock—especially critical for economies such as Singapore facing tight labour markets and demographic shifts.

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Image Credit: Hu Chen on Unsplash

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A new generation of tech-savvy entrepreneurs, professionals, and sophisticated investors in India is building wealth faster than ever before.

Yet, most of the wealth management industry remains stuck in outdated models. This disconnect isn’t just a missed opportunity; it’s a critical flaw that costs investors performance, peace of mind, and the chance to truly compound wealth in a fast-evolving market.

India’s private wealth market is booming and set to expand dramatically, projected to grow at a 10 per cent CAGR and reach US$5 trillion by 2026. Yet, a large share of this capital is still managed through traditional Portfolio Management Services (PMS) and advisory models that rely heavily on gut-based decisions and static asset allocations.

In a world where markets can shift in milliseconds, these emotion-driven frameworks are increasingly obsolete. They were designed for a different era and fail to protect investors from volatility or capture new opportunities in time.

The hidden flaws of static portfolios

The classic advice of “buy and hold” or sticking to a rigid 60/40 equity-debt split has long dominated wealth conversations. But today, this approach has critical flaws:

• Regime blindness: As per Bridgewater’s All Weather Strategy Paper, Markets operate in different “regimes” defined by changes in inflation, rates, and growth. A strategy that thrives in one regime can fail completely in another. A 2022 study by BlackRock showed that static portfolios significantly underperformed dynamic models during recent inflation spikes. These traditional setups simply aren’t designed to recognise or adapt to shifts.

Also Read: Investing in climate tech: Why investors should focus on impactful, low-hanging fruits

• The illusion of diversification: In theory, diversification reduces risk. In practice, during crises, assets that seemed uncorrelated can move together, known as “correlation breakdown”. In recent downturns, equities and certain bonds fell at the same time, leaving supposedly diversified investors exposed. True diversification today comes not just from owning different asset classes, but from employing adaptive strategies that can evolve with market conditions.
• The high cost of emotional drag: One of the most damaging yet under-discussed costs is emotional decision-making panic selling during dips or rushing in during peaks. Research from Dalbar’s Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior consistently shows a large gap between market returns and actual investor returns, largely driven by poorly timed emotional moves. Traditional advisory models, which often amplify short-term fear or greed, can worsen this gap rather than close it.

The new rules of wealth

The future of intelligent investing lies in systematic, data-driven approaches. This isn’t about removing human insight, but strengthening it with technology to overcome behavioural biases.

Today, massive volumes of data, macro trends, corporate fundamentals, and real-time sentiment can be analysed to uncover patterns invisible to the naked eye. AI and machine learning models now process these signals to build predictive frameworks that identify shifts before they become consensus.

Adaptability is the real edge. Adaptive or “all-weather” strategies are designed to evolve continuously. By using quantitative signals, these systems can systematically reduce risk exposure during turbulent periods (for example, shifting to cash or safer assets) and re-risk when opportunities arise. Prioritising downside protection is a mathematical necessity. Avoiding large losses has a far greater impact on long-term compounding than chasing big wins.

A 50 per cent loss requires a 100 per cent gain just to break even, a truth most investors underestimate.

A new perspective on portfolio engineering

From my experience designing adaptive investment systems, I’ve learned that no single strategy works in all market conditions. The real goal is to move beyond simple “asset allocation” and toward dynamic, engineered portfolios that are built to respond to regime changes and evolving risk signals.

Also Read: The ageing economy: Why investors should bet on longevity over AI

My philosophy as the founder of Aeonaux Capital has always been to treat wealth-building like an engineering problem, design robust systems, automate decisions where possible, and focus on minimising human biases. Rather than chasing hype or gut feelings, I believe the future belongs to frameworks that are built to think, adapt, and protect first.

A disciplined, evidence-based approach helps investors move past emotional decision-making. Instead of a roller coaster of booms and busts, the aim is to create a smoother, more resilient journey focusing on capital preservation first and then on sustainable, long-term growth.

The way forward for Indian investors

The next era of wealth management in India will be defined by three core principles: data-driven, systematic, and transparent. The age of opaque strategies and high-conviction gut calls is fading. Investors deserve approaches that are as sophisticated and forward-looking as they are.

The most important action investors can take today is to ask harder questions. How is downside risk managed? How does the strategy adapt to changing markets? Are decisions driven by data or by emotions?

Thinking beyond holding periods and adopting adaptive, systematic frameworks can help investors build wealth that is designed to withstand market cycles and remain resilient for decades to come.

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Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. Share your opinion by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic.

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