This week, the interplay of US-Japan trade talks, US-China tariff escalations, and new restrictions on chip exports has kept markets on edge. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s measured response to the turmoil has dashed hopes for immediate intervention, leaving investors to grapple with volatile asset prices and shifting risk sentiment.

The current market landscape is a complex tapestry of competing forces, from Bitcoin’s resilience to Ethereum’s technical signals, US equities’ performance, and gold’s safe-haven allure. Below, I offer my perspective on these developments, weaving together the broader macroeconomic context, asset-specific dynamics, and the implications for investors navigating this fraught environment.

The tentative global risk sentiment reflects the high stakes of ongoing tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and its major trading partners. The advancement of US-Japan trade talks, marked by President Trump’s optimistic claim of “big progress,” provided a modest lift to Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 gaining slightly. However, the yen weakened as investors priced in the likelihood of a deal that could avert higher US levies on Japanese goods, particularly in the auto sector. This development underscores Japan’s delicate balancing act: while a trade agreement could stabilise its export-driven economy, a stronger US dollar against the yen could pressure Japanese manufacturers’ competitiveness. The Bank of Japan, already grappling with a low-yield environment, may face further constraints if US tariffs dampen economic growth, as Governor Kazuo Ueda recently hinted.

For investors, the yen’s trajectory and Japan’s market performance hinge on the specifics of any deal—whether it prioritises market access or imposes new non-tariff barriers.

The US-China trade war, however, remains the epicentre of market anxiety. The White House’s confirmation of a staggering 245 per cent cumulative tariff rate on Chinese imports, following China’s retaliatory 125 per cent levies on US goods, signals a deepening economic standoff. This tit-for-tat escalation, coupled with new US restrictions on chip exports by Nvidia and AMD, has battered technology stocks and fueled fears of disrupted global supply chains. The chip export curbs, targeting Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 AI chips, are a strategic move to limit China’s access to advanced technology, but they come at a cost: Nvidia estimates a US$5.5 billion hit to its revenue, and its shares slumped nearly seven per cent.

Also Read: Automation, not Apps: The next frontier in Southeast Asia’s F&B tech innovation

The broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1 per cent, contributing to the MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent decline. These developments highlight the fragility of the tech sector, which has been a cornerstone of US market performance but is now vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

China’s response has been multifaceted, blending defiance with pragmatism. Beijing’s vow to “fight to the end” against US tariffs is tempered by signals of openness to negotiations, suggesting a desire to avoid a complete collapse of trade relations. However, China’s reported sale of confiscated cryptocurrency holdings, including Bitcoin, amid an economic slowdown, adds another layer of complexity.

This move, likely driven by the need to bolster fiscal reserves, has sparked speculation about its impact on crypto markets. Remarkably, Bitcoin has shown resilience, holding above US$84,000 despite the sales. This strength can be attributed to Bitcoin’s growing perception as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly as central banks and investors seek alternatives to traditional assets amid trade war volatility. Posts on X reflect this sentiment, with some users noting Bitcoin’s 64 per cent market dominance—a level not seen since early 2021—as evidence of its safe-haven appeal.

Ethereum, by contrast, has struggled, slipping below US$1,600 and entering a technically bearish phase. An analysis by CryptoQuant’s abramchart offers a nuanced perspective, suggesting that Ethereum’s current price near its realised price of US$1,585 could signal a deep-value accumulation zone. Historically, such levels have preceded major bull runs as long-term holders re-enter the market. However, technical indicators paint a mixed picture: Ethereum’s breach of its 20-day moving average and its position well below the 200-day average confirm a strong downtrend, while the relative strength index near 40 indicates weak momentum.

The compressed Bollinger Bands suggest a potential breakout, but the direction remains uncertain. For investors, Ethereum’s current dynamics present both opportunity and risk. While the realised price level hints at undervaluation, the broader market’s risk-off mood and trade war headwinds could delay a rebound.

The Federal Reserve’s role in this turbulent environment cannot be overstated. Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this week, emphasising a wait-and-see approach to tariffs, have quashed expectations of a “Fed put”—a swift policy response to stabilise markets. Powell’s caution is rooted in the dual risks of higher inflation and slower growth, which tariffs are “highly likely” to exacerbate. His acknowledgement that the Fed faces a “highly uncertain outlook” underscores the central bank’s dilemma: cutting rates could fuel inflation while holding or raising rates risks stifling growth and employment. The Fed’s benchmark rate, currently between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent, reflects this holding pattern, with traders still betting on cuts by June despite Powell’s reticence. The Fed’s data-dependent stance, coupled with solid economic indicators like March’s 228,000 job additions, suggests that any policy shift will hinge on clearer evidence of tariff-related economic fallout.

Also Read: Trade War tensions escalate: How China’s jet ban and Bitcoin slips as supply outpaces demand

Fixed-income markets have also felt the strain, with US Treasury yields edging lower as investors reassess growth prospects. The 10-year yield fell 5.6 basis points to 4.28 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 3.77 per cent, reflecting concerns about a potential recession. The US dollar index’s 0.8 per cent decline, reaching its lowest level since April 2022, signals waning confidence in US assets as investors pivot to safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Gold, meanwhile, has surged 3.5 per cent to a record US$3,339 per ounce, with ANZ Bank forecasting a rise to US$3,600 by year-end.

This rally, driven by central bank purchases and haven demand, underscores gold’s role as a bulwark against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Brent crude’s 1.8 per cent rise to around US$65 per barrel, spurred by US sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian oil, highlights the ripple effects of trade policies on commodity markets.

US equities, particularly the energy sector, have shown pockets of resilience, with energy stocks gaining 0.8 per cent amid higher oil prices. However, the broader MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent tumble reflects the tech sector’s drag and broader tariff fears. Asian equities, trading in a tight range, have been buoyed by hopes of Chinese stimulus, but volatility persists as negotiation headlines dominate. US equity futures, pointing to a 0.4 per cent higher open, suggest a tentative recovery, but the market’s direction remains contingent on trade developments.

From my perspective, the current market environment demands a disciplined, long-term approach. The escalation of US-China tariffs and chip export restrictions poses significant risks to global growth, particularly for the tech and manufacturing sectors. However, opportunities exist in assets such as Bitcoin and gold, which are benefiting from their safe-haven status. Ethereum’s technical setup, while bearish, suggests potential for accumulation by patient investors.

Powell’s cautious stance, while frustrating for those seeking immediate relief, is a prudent response to an unprecedented policy shock. Investors should focus on diversification, prioritising assets with strong fundamentals and resilience to geopolitical volatility. The road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, but those who navigate it with clarity and conviction may find opportunities amid the storm.

In conclusion, the global markets are at a crossroads, shaped by the interplay of trade tensions, monetary policy, and shifting investor sentiment. The US-China tariff war, US-Japan trade talks, and the Fed’s watchful stance are driving volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities. Bitcoin’s resilience, Ethereum’s accumulation potential, and gold’s surge highlight the divergent paths assets are taking in this environment. As negotiations unfold and economic data clarifies the tariff impact, investors must remain agile, balancing risk and opportunity in a rapidly evolving landscape.

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Indonesian agritech startup Eratani announced it has secured US$6.2 million in Series A funding to accelerate its mission of transforming Indonesia’s rice farming sector through sustainable and data-driven solutions.

Clay Capital led the funding round, which included participation from TNB Aura, SBI Ven Capital, AgFunder, Genting Ventures, and IIX.

The fresh capital will enable Eratani to expand the adoption of precision agriculture tools, on-farm mechanisation, and environmentally sustainable cultivation practices. These efforts aim to improve farmers’ productivity and profitability while supporting Indonesia’s broader climate and food security goals.

“At Eratani, we are proving that economic and social impact can go hand-in-hand with environmental sustainability,” said Andrew Soeherman, Co-founder and CEO of Eratani, in a press statement. “Our focus is not on rapid expansion but on building a robust foundation that allows us to scale strategically, creating long-term value for farmers and the agricultural ecosystem.”

Founded in 2021, Eratani has built an end-to-end digital platform that connects stakeholders across the rice supply chain. The platform provides smallholder farmers access to affordable credit, quality inputs, agronomic advisory services and improved market access.

Also Read: Singapore anchors inaugural ClimAccelerator for agritech startups in APAC

The startup said that it has empowered over 34,000 farmers across Java and Sulawesi, improved cultivation across more than 13,000 hectares, and increased yields and incomes by 29 per cent and 25 per cent respectively in 2024. In total, Eratani has supported the production of over 112,000 tons of rice and grain.

Rice, a staple food for more than half the world’s population, is among the most environmentally intensive crops. Flooded rice fields contribute 1.5–2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions—comparable to those from the aviation industry—and use 3,000 to 5,000 litres of water per kilogram, significantly more than other major cereals.

Eratani’s integrated approach aims to tackle these environmental challenges while enhancing food production efficiency. Eratani, Co-Founder and CFO Bambang Cahyo Susilo, explained that by utilising data-driven insights, the company is able to manage risk more effectively and support smarter decisions for farmers.

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Indonesia’s once-vibrant startup ecosystem endured a sharp contraction in 2024, with funding activity slowing to its lowest level in recent years. According to the Indonesia Tech Annual Report 2024 by Tracxn, the country’s total startup funding plummeted to US$323 million—a 75 per cent drop from the US$1.3 billion raised in 2023 and an even more pronounced 90.05 per cent fall from US$3.24 billion in 2022.

This dramatic downturn reflects broader global caution in venture capital (VC) spending, but also highlights local challenges unique to Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The most acute impact was felt at the late-stage level, where startups collectively raised just US$71.2 million. This figure marks a steep 91.95 per cent decrease from US$884 million in 2023 and a 95.84 per cent collapse from 2022’s US$1.71 billion.

Across the board, the Indonesian tech startup scene has encountered tightened capital flow. Early-stage and seed-stage startups have not been spared, signalling a systemic slowdown in the investment cycle. However, some pockets of resilience remain. According to the report, sectors such as fintech, enterprise applications, and insurtech have continued to attract investor attention, suggesting a selective appetite for scalable and financially sound business models.

Beyond private equity funding, exit activity also witnessed a decline. Only one startup, Topindoku, made its public debut in 2024, raising US$34.9 million. This singular IPO illustrates the cautious sentiment prevailing in capital markets, where companies are holding off on public listings amidst valuation corrections and investor scepticism.

As traditional venture funding continues to retract, startups are increasingly exploring alternative avenues for growth capital. One such option gaining traction is corporate venture capital (CVC), often backed by major corporates and financial institutions.

Also Read: AI trade compliance startup Dutycast lands strategic funding from GTR Ventures

The CVC advantage

In contrast to conventional VCs, CVCs not only provide financial backing but also offer strategic advantages, including access to customers, go-to-market support, and brand credibility.

A Harvard Business Review article underscores the potential of CVCs in volatile markets. It notes, “These corporate investors offer not only funding, but also access to resources such as subsidiaries that can serve as market validators and customers, marketing and development support, and a credible existing brand.”

In Indonesia, where startups are grappling with funding scarcity and the need to demonstrate value early, such support can be vital.

Banks, too, are stepping up as non-traditional partners, especially those seeking to expand their digital portfolios or strengthen relationships with innovative enterprises. With extensive regulatory experience and existing customer networks, banks can offer a solid foundation for collaboration, particularly in fintech and adjacent sectors.

Despite current headwinds, Indonesia’s tech ecosystem retains underlying strengths. With a young, tech-savvy population, growing internet penetration, and increasing digitisation across industries, the long-term fundamentals remain intact. Yet the current funding winter is a reminder that capital efficiency, strong unit economics, and clear product-market fit are more essential than ever.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of Indonesia’s startup ecosystem will depend on how founders, investors, and strategic partners adapt to this new normal. The rise of CVCs and institutional collaborators may redefine what it means to grow a tech startup in Indonesia—shifting the narrative from high-velocity growth to long-term resilience and strategic value creation.

To understand more about this shift, do not miss the fireside chat “Investing in Innovation: The Role of Banks and CVCs in the Future of Indonesia’s Tech Ecosystem” at Echelon Singapore 2025, taking place on Tuesday, June 10, from 11:00 AM to 11:30 AM at the Forge Stage.

This session offers a timely deep dive into how banks and corporate venture capital arms are stepping in to support innovation amid Indonesia’s shifting funding landscape. Moderated by Shilpa S Nath, Founder of What The Fail, and featuring Eddi Danusaputro, CEO of BNI Ventures, the conversation will explore new strategies for sustainable growth, the evolving role of institutional investors, and what it takes to build resilience in uncertain times.

Entry is free—make sure to attend and gain key insights into the future of tech investment in Southeast Asia.

Get your passes here.

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As Southeast Asia’s (SEA) startup ecosystem continues to mature, Japan is emerging as a valuable and strategic partner in the region’s innovation economy. With its capital resources, corporate maturity, and increasing appetite for international collaboration, Japan’s engagement with Southeast Asian startups is gaining traction—offering opportunities for funding, technology transfer, and market access.

Japanese investors have historically maintained a cautious approach to risk, but recent years have seen a shift towards more active participation in global startup markets, particularly in Asia. A report by Startup Genome highlights Japan as one of the top five Asian countries investing in startups beyond its borders, with SEA standing out as a priority region due to its demographic advantages, digital growth, and dynamic consumer markets.

Japan’s presence in the region is driven in part by the country’s need to counterbalance its domestic challenges—namely an ageing population, a shrinking workforce, and stagnating internal demand. In contrast, SEA offers youthful populations, increasing mobile penetration, and high rates of digital adoption. For Japanese firms, partnering with SEA startups presents an opportunity to access fast-growing markets while contributing capital and experience.

NTT, one of Japan’s largest telecommunications companies, exemplifies this approach. Through its venture arm and corporate innovation initiatives, NTT has actively sought collaborations across the region, not only by investing in startups but also by co-developing solutions in areas such as smart cities, fintech, and AI.

Beyond individual corporations, institutional initiatives also support deeper ties between Japan and SEA. The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) has been instrumental in promoting cross-border partnerships through programmes such as the Japan Innovation Bridge (J-Bridge), which facilitates open innovation between Japanese companies and overseas startups. According to JETRO’s 2023 report, SEA accounted for more than 30 per cent of all startup collaboration projects involving Japanese corporates—a clear indication of growing interest in the region.

Also Read: Granite Asia, Integral form US$100M JV to drive Japan-global tech expansion

Japanese venture capital firms are also expanding their presence in SEA. Funds such as GREE Ventures (now STRIVE), Spiral Ventures, and Genesia Ventures have established local offices or dedicated funds targeting startups in Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, and beyond. These VCs are not just investing capital but also bringing a long-term, partnership-oriented mindset, which aligns well with founders seeking sustainable scaling strategies.

Despite the growing momentum, cultural and operational differences remain key challenges. Japanese investors often take a longer time to make decisions and place a strong emphasis on due diligence and relationship-building. For SEA founders, understanding and navigating these expectations is critical to building lasting partnerships. Conversely, Japanese corporates must be prepared to adapt to the faster pace and flexible structures typical of startups in emerging markets.

There are also sectoral synergies that make collaboration attractive. Areas such as fintech, agritech, mobility, and deep tech offer significant room for cooperation. Japan’s strength in hardware and engineering complements SEA’s digital-native startups, many of which excel in mobile-first platforms and service delivery. Together, they can co-create solutions tailored for both developed and developing markets.

Looking forward, the deepening ties between Japan and SEA’s startup ecosystems are likely to accelerate. Regional governments are increasingly supportive of international cooperation, and bilateral frameworks are being designed to encourage tech partnerships. As cross-border travel and business engagement return to pre-pandemic levels, there is optimism that these connections will translate into a more robust and integrated Asian innovation landscape.

Also Read: Vertex Ventures Japan launches with US$67M fund to propel Japanese startups globally

To learn more about opportunities for SEA startups in Japan, join us at the Future Stage on Tuesday, June 10, from 11:05 AM to 11:30 AM for the keynote speech “Beyond Borders: How Southeast Asia’s Startup Ecosystem Can Win with Japan.”

This free session will feature Ken Katsuyama, SVP and Head of Global Business at NTT, who will share expert insights on how SEA startups can tap into opportunities for collaboration, investment, and expansion with Japan’s tech and corporate ecosystem.

As regional markets become increasingly interconnected, this keynote offers valuable perspectives on building cross-border partnerships and driving innovation across Asia. Don’t miss this chance to explore new frontiers in regional tech growth.

Get your passes here.

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When it comes to adopting AI, not every business needs to reinvent the wheel or start from zero. Instead, leaders should take a step back and ask: Where does my organisation stand today?

The reality is businesses exist across a spectrum of AI readiness. Some are just starting to explore the concept of AI, while others are already using it to drive innovation and strategy. The key to success is to evaluate your current stage and take targeted actions to move forward.

Understanding your current level of AI maturity is the first and most important step. This approach saves time, money, and effort by aligning your AI strategy with your actual capabilities and business needs.

The five phases of AI readiness

Let’s break down the Enterprise AI Readiness Framework into simple terms and real-world scenarios. Each phase comes with specific goals and examples to guide your journey.

• Awareness: “What is AI, and why should we care?”

This is the starting point for many businesses. At this stage, the goal is to build awareness of AI and how it could apply to your industry. Educate leadership through workshops and seminars. Research potential AI use cases for your organisation. Identify areas where AI could solve real business problems. Studies show that 60 per cent of organisations are still in this early phase, with no formal AI initiatives in place.

Example: A manufacturing company exploring AI might learn that predictive maintenance can reduce downtime by 20-30 per cent, saving millions annually. But they first need to understand the basics of how AI works.

• Exploration: “Let’s test the waters with small projects”

Here, businesses start experimenting with small-scale AI projects. These are low-risk, low-cost pilots that demonstrate the potential of AI. Form a small AI team (e.g., one data scientist, one engineer). Test off-the-shelf AI tools and analyse pilot results. Gartner reports that 25 per cent of companies in this phase see measurable returns within six months of starting AI pilots.

Example: A retail company might pilot an AI tool to predict inventory needs. By analysing past sales data, they avoid overstocking, saving US$100,000 in a single quarter.

Also Read: Climate tech startups can play a role in helping SMEs bridge sustainability, digital transformation: Paessler

• Operationalisation: “Let’s formalise AI across the organisation”

At this stage, businesses move from pilots to building infrastructure for scalable AI adoption. This includes setting up governance, ensuring data privacy, and deploying AI in real-world use cases. Establish an AI Center of Excellence (CoE), build scalable data platforms (e.g., data lakes), and create governance policies for compliance. According to McKinsey, businesses in this phase see a 20 per cent improvement in operational efficiency.

Example: A healthcare provider adopts AI to analyse patient data, reducing diagnosis times by 30 per cent. They build a centralised platform to ensure all AI models meet regulatory requirements.

• Proficient: “AI is part of how we work”

Now, AI becomes integrated into daily operations across the organisation. Advanced monitoring systems ensure models stay accurate, and employees are trained to use AI tools effectively. Scale AI solutions across departments. Train employees to use AI in their roles. Monitor models for performance and fairness. Proficient organisations report a 30-50 per cent increase in productivity across functions using AI.

Example: An e-commerce company uses AI to personalise customer experiences, increasing average order value by 15 per cent. AI tools also optimise warehouse operations, cutting costs by 10 per cent.

• Leader: “AI drives everything we do.”

This is the ultimate level of AI maturity. Businesses here use AI as a core driver of strategy, innovation, and operations. Use cutting-edge AI techniques like generative AI and autonomous systems. Foster an AI-first culture with continuous employee upskilling. Only 10 per cent of organisations globally are at this stage, but they account for 70 per cent of all economic gains from AI.

Example: Tesla uses AI not only in its cars but also to optimise factory production, cutting manufacturing costs by 25 per cent. AI also drives innovation in R&D, creating entirely new product categories.

Why starting with assessment matters

Imagine this: You wouldn’t buy a Formula 1 car if you’ve only just learned how to drive. Similarly, jumping straight into advanced AI tools without the right foundation can lead to wasted investments. A survey by MIT found that 85 per cent of AI projects fail—not because AI doesn’t work, but because organisations weren’t ready for it.

Also Read: COVID-19, the environment, and the tech ecosystem: what opportunity is available out there for us?

By assessing your current maturity level, you can focus on actions that deliver real value. For example:

• Awareness phase: Focus on leadership buy-in and identifying high-impact use cases
• Exploration phase: Invest in small, measurable pilots to prove AI’s value
• Proficient phase: Scale AI efforts strategically, focusing on ROI

Practical takeaways for leaders

• Start small: If you’re in the early stages, start with one pilot project. For instance, try using AI to automate customer service through chatbots
• Measure results: Document your wins and challenges. Did your pilot reduce costs or improve efficiency? Use these insights to build momentum
• Think long-term: Advanced AI maturity doesn’t happen overnight. Focus on sustainable growth by investing in talent, infrastructure, and governance

The roadmap to AI success

So, where does your organisation stand today? Assess your readiness, align your strategy, and take the next step toward unlocking AI’s transformative potential. Remember, AI isn’t a destination—it’s a journey. And every journey starts with knowing where you are.

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