The recent rebound in risk sentiment and the relief rally in US markets, spurred by the easing of fears surrounding a potential government shutdown. The developments over the past few days paint a fascinating, albeit complex, picture of an interconnected global financial system grappling with uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Let’s dive into the details and unpack what this all means, both for the immediate future and the broader economic landscape.
The S&P 500’s 2.1 per cent surge last Friday was a welcome reprieve after it closed in a technical recession the previous day—a term that, while not officially signalling a full-blown economic downturn, certainly rattled investors. The rally was broad-based, with most sectors finishing in positive territory, reflecting a collective sigh of relief that a government shutdown, which could have paralysed federal operations and dented market confidence, appears to have been averted, at least for now. This kind of market behaviour is classic: when a looming threat dissipates, investors pile back in, eager to capitalise on discounted stocks.
Yet, beneath this optimism lies a more troubling undercurrent—US consumer sentiment has plummeted to its lowest level in over two years. The preliminary March sentiment index dropped to 57.9, a stark indicator that everyday Americans are growing increasingly anxious about the economy. This apprehension isn’t unfounded.
With tariffs looming as a potential disruptor, consumers are bracing for higher prices, a fear underscored by their expectation that inflation will climb to 3.9 per cent annually over the next five to ten years. That’s a significant jump from last month’s 3.5 per cent and the highest long-term inflation expectation in over three decades. It’s hard not to see this as a red flag—when consumers start anticipating sustained price increases, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as spending habits shift and businesses adjust accordingly.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate balancing act. Despite these inflationary fears and a step-down in economic growth, the Fed is widely expected to hold steady at its Wednesday meeting, signalling patience rather than panic. This isn’t surprising—Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently emphasised a data-driven approach, and with inflation still above the two per cent target but not spiraling out of control, a pause makes sense.
However, the bond market tells a slightly different story. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note ticked up 5 basis points to 4.31 per cent, a subtle but telling sign that investors are demanding higher returns to compensate for perceived risks. It’s a reminder that while equity markets may cheer short-term wins, the fixed-income crowd remains wary of longer-term uncertainties, particularly around fiscal policy and trade disruptions.
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Speaking of trade, the commodities market offers another lens into this evolving narrative. Gold, that perennial safe-haven asset, climbed 0.5 per cent to breach the US$3,000-per-ounce mark for the first time—a milestone that speaks volumes about investor unease. With US policy uncertainty intensifying, particularly around tariffs and their potential to upend global supply chains, gold’s ascent feels less like a speculative bubble and more like a rational hedge.
Brent crude, too, edged higher by 0.3 per cent to US$71.61 per barrel, buoyed by the dual forces of tighter supply expectations (thanks to trade war jitters) and OPEC+’s decision to ramp up output. It’s a delicate dance—higher oil prices could stoke inflation further, yet they also reflect a market betting on sustained demand despite economic headwinds.
Across the Atlantic, European equities caught a tailwind from positive political developments in Germany, where Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced a deal with the Green Party on a defense and infrastructure package. This news lifted the EUR/USD pair by 0.3 per cent to 1.0876, suggesting a flicker of confidence in Europe’s economic stability amid its own challenges.
Asia, too, is showing signs of resilience. Equities there regained their footing last Friday and continued to trade higher in early sessions today, March 17, 2025. Investors are laser-focused on China’s upcoming data dump—fixed asset investments, retail sales, industrial production, and home prices—which could provide critical clues about the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Any weakness in these figures could ripple across global markets, especially given China’s role as a manufacturing powerhouse and consumer market. For now, though, the mood in Asia seems cautiously optimistic, mirroring the relief rally in the US.
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But let’s pivot to a wildcard in this global financial tapestry: Bitcoin and its contrasting fates in South Korea and the United States. The Bank of Korea (BOK) has firmly rejected the idea of incorporating Bitcoin into its foreign exchange reserves, citing its wild price swings and the hefty transaction costs of converting it to cash.
The BOK’s stance aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s guidelines, which prioritise liquidity and risk management—attributes Bitcoin, with its volatility, struggles to meet. This conservative approach stands in sharp contrast to the US, where President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
It’s a bold move, signalling America’s willingness to embrace cryptocurrency as a strategic asset, perhaps as a hedge against dollar weakness or a play to attract blockchain investment. The divergence is striking: South Korea sees Bitcoin as a liability, while the US views it as an opportunity.
Then there’s North Korea, stealthily emerging as a major Bitcoin player through the exploits of the Lazarus Group. Their audacious US$1.4 billion heist from Bybit on February 21, 2025—mostly in Ethereum, later partially converted to Bitcoin—has catapulted the rogue state into the ranks of top government holders, with 13,562 BTC valued at US$1.14 billion.
It’s a chilling reminder of how cybercrime can reshape national wealth, turning digital theft into a treasury-building exercise. This development adds another layer of complexity to Bitcoin’s role in global finance, blurring the lines between legitimate investment and illicit gain.
Bitcoin’s price action itself remains a rollercoaster. I am eyeing a key resistance level at US$86,700, with failure to break through potentially sending it tumbling to US$77,859 or even US$71,011 if selling pressure mounts. Last week’s choppy movements reflect a market caught between bullish enthusiasm and bearish caution.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted on X that Bitcoin’s open interest hit a record US$33 billion in January, only to see nearly US$10 billion wiped out between February 20 and March 4 amid political uncertainty tied to Trump’s actions. This 90-day futures open interest drop of -14 per cent suggests a market reset, clearing out excess leverage and possibly setting the stage for a more stable recovery. It’s a pattern we’ve seen before—painful liquidations paving the way for cautious growth.
I see a world at a crossroads. The relief rally in US markets is a fleeting victory, a sugar high that masks deeper structural concerns. Consumer sentiment’s nosedive and rising inflation expectations signal a populace bracing for tougher times, potentially exacerbated by tariffs that could jack up costs across the board.
The Fed’s patience is prudent, but it risks being perceived as indecision if inflation accelerates unchecked. Gold’s record highs and oil’s upward creep underscore a flight to safety and supply-side worries, while Europe and Asia’s gains hint at a fragile global recovery that could easily falter. Bitcoin’s tale—shunned by South Korea, embraced by the US, and hoarded by North Korea—epitomises the chaos and opportunity of our digital age.
“For investors, it’s a time to tread carefully, balancing short-term gains against long-term risks. For the rest of us, it’s a front-row seat to a high-stakes economic drama where the next act is anyone’s guess.” — Anndy Lian
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