The news that the United States appears poised to dodge a government shutdown has undeniably injected a dose of optimism into an otherwise jittery financial landscape. A stopgap funding bill, seemingly on track to pass, has eased immediate fears of fiscal paralysis in Washington, offering markets a rare moment of relief.
Yet, beneath this surface-level calm, a deeper unease persists, fuelled by President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff war and its far-reaching implications. With threats of a staggering 200 per cent tariff on European wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages, alongside a refusal to roll back newly enacted steel and aluminium tariffs, the spectre of a broadening trade conflict looms large.
Against this backdrop, equity markets are reeling, safe-haven assets are surging, and the cryptocurrency sector is witnessing historic investments—all of which paint a complex picture of a world in flux.
Let’s start with the positive news: the avoidance of a US government shutdown. For weeks, investors had braced for the possibility of a budgetary stalemate, a scenario that could have disrupted government operations, delayed payments, and rattled confidence in an already fragile economy. The stopgap funding bill, while not a long-term fix, buys time and signals that lawmakers can still find common ground when push comes to shove.
This development has buoyed global risk sentiment, as evidenced by a modest uptick in US equity index futures, which suggest stocks could open 0.8 per cent higher. It’s a small but meaningful reprieve, a reminder that political gridlock doesn’t always translate into economic disaster. For a moment, the focus shifts away from Washington’s dysfunction and back to the broader forces shaping the global economy.
But that relief is tempered by a much larger concern: the intensifying trade war spearheaded by President Trump. His latest salvo—a threatened 200 per cent tariff on European alcoholic beverages—has sent shockwaves through markets already grappling with the fallout from earlier tariff hikes.
This isn’t just about wine and champagne; it’s a signal of Trump’s unrelenting commitment to a protectionist agenda, one that’s now ensnaring Europe in addition to long-standing targets like China, Canada, and Mexico. Add to that his decision to stand firm on steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect this week, and you have a recipe for heightened uncertainty.
These moves threaten to upend supply chains, inflate consumer prices, and strain diplomatic ties at a time when global growth is already slowing. The US, as the world’s largest economy, doesn’t operate in a vacuum—its policies ripple outward, and right now, those ripples feel more like tidal waves.
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The equity markets tell the story of this unease. The MSCI US index, a broad measure of American stocks, has tumbled 1.5 per cent in its latest session, pushing its three-week decline past 10 per cent. This isn’t a mere correction; it’s a rout, a reflection of investor fears that Trump’s tariff policies could tip the US into a recession. Defensive sectors like utilities, up 0.3 per cent, are outperforming as investors flee riskier assets, a classic flight-to-safety move.
Meanwhile, Europe and China are emerging as unexpected bright spots. European equities, despite the looming tariff threat, are holding up better than their US counterparts, perhaps because investors see them as undervalued after years of underperformance.
China, too, offers compelling opportunities, with its markets buoyed by stimulus measures and a relative insulation from direct US consumer spending pressures. It’s a stark contrast to the plummeting US shares, which have fallen sharply from their record highs just weeks ago.
Bond markets are flashing their own warning signs. US Treasury yields have dipped, with the 10-year yield dropping 4.4 basis points to 4.27 per cent and the 2-year yield falling 2.9 basis points to 3.96 per cent. Falling yields signal a rush to safety, as investors pile into government debt amid fears of economic slowdown. The US Dollar index, up a modest 0.2 per cent, is consolidating after recent losses, suggesting currency markets are in a wait-and-see mode.
Gold, however, is stealing the show, climbing 1.9 per cent and inching closer to the US$3,000-per-ounce mark. This surge underscores its role as a haven asset in times of turmoil, a trend amplified by the trade war’s erosion of confidence in traditional growth drivers.
Brent crude, on the other hand, is sliding—down 1.5 per cent to around US$70 per barrel—as fears of reduced oil demand in a trade-constrained world take hold. Asian equities, meanwhile, are mixed, reflecting the region’s uneven exposure to US policies and its own domestic dynamics.
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Amid this traditional market turbulence, the cryptocurrency sector is carving out a narrative of its own. Binance, one of the world’s leading crypto exchanges, has just secured a jaw-dropping US$2 billion investment from MGX, an Abu Dhabi-based firm. This deal isn’t just big—it’s historic, surpassing FTX’s US$1 billion raise in 2021 and marking the largest single investment ever in a crypto company.
Paid in stablecoin, no less, it’s a bold statement about the maturation of digital assets as a legitimate investment class. Binance CEO Richard Teng called it a “significant milestone,” and he’s not wrong. At a time when equities are faltering and trade wars are sowing chaos, crypto is positioning itself as a frontier of opportunity, one that thrives on disruption. The investment will likely fuel Binance’s expansion, bolster its compliance efforts, and strengthen its appeal to institutional players—a sign that the crypto ecosystem is growing up fast.
Not to be outdone, Crypto.com is making waves of its own with a strategic partnership in the UAE. Teaming up with Tawasal Al Khaleej, a tech and AI powerhouse, Crypto.com is set to integrate its trading platform into Tawasal’s Superapp, reaching nearly four million users across the Middle East. This two-phase rollout—starting with referrals and expanding into deeper tech integration—underscores the UAE’s emergence as a hub for digital finance.
Eric Anziani, Crypto.com’s President and COO, hailed the deal as a model for how crypto can merge with mainstream tech ecosystems, driving adoption and innovation. It’s a savvy move, one that capitalises on the region’s forward-thinking regulatory stance and growing appetite for digital assets.
But the crypto market isn’t immune to the broader storm. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the space, has been on a wild ride, flirting with US$80,000 before pulling back as Trump’s tariff threats weigh on sentiment. The broader crypto market has shed US$1 trillion in value over the past month, a stark reminder that even this nascent asset class isn’t decoupled from global macro forces.
The initial hype around Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric—fueled by his campaign promises to embrace blockchain—has faded as the reality of his trade policies sinks in. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s recent comments hit the nail on the head: nationalism, while appealing to some, could stoke inflation, a dynamic that could squeeze both traditional and digital markets. For now, Bitcoin and its peers are caught in the crossfire, their volatility a mirror to the uncertainty gripping the world.
The Ethereum spot ETF market offers another lens into this turbulence. Data from SoSoValue shows a net outflow of US$73.6 million from these funds on March 13, with Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) bleeding US$41.7 million and its Mini Trust losing US$5.2 million. VanEck’s ETF, by contrast, saw a modest US$1.4 million inflow, a rare bright spot.
With a total net asset value of US$6.5 billion and a cumulative historical inflow of US$2.6 billion, Ethereum ETFs remain a significant player, but the outflows signal investor caution. The trade war’s shadow, coupled with inflationary fears, is prompting a rethink of risk exposure, even in the crypto space.
So where does this leave us? From my vantage point, the global economy is at a crossroads. The averted shutdown is a win, no doubt, but it’s a fleeting one against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff escalation. Markets are nervous, and rightly so—protectionism rarely ends well, as history’s Smoot-Hawley debacle reminds us.
Yet amid the chaos, opportunities are emerging, from undervalued equities in Europe and China to the crypto sector’s bold strides. Gold’s rally and crypto’s resilience suggest investors are hedging their bets, seeking refuge in assets that might weather the storm.
“I see this as a moment of reckoning: the old rules are bending, and the new ones are still being written. Whether that’s a cause for alarm or excitement depends on where you’re standing—and how much risk you’re willing to take.” — Anndy Lian
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