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Avoiding costly mistakes: How cognitive biases can affect entrepreneurs

Time and time again, research has shown that the hiring process is biased and unfair. Factors like unconscious racism, sexism, and ageism, even the weather on the day of the interviews can influence hiring decisions.

Another study on decision-making in the United States showed that different judges presiding over identical cases meted out varied sentences. While the average sentence was seven years, identical cases had a four-year sentence disparity, the difference between a five-year and nine-year sentence.

Therein lies the flaw in human judgement. We are unable to exercise objective decision-making due to the existence of noise and the unwanted variability in professional judgments of the same problem.

Where there is noise, there is bias and more than you think

Recently, we had the honour of having Olivier Sibony, co-author of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement and Senior Advisor to Qualgro, speak on noise and bias at our Qualgro Symposium

Noise exists because of the existence of various factors. These include cognitive biases, group dynamics, mood, stress, fatigue, and differences in skill and taste between assessors and decision-makers.

Bias is one part of the error equation. The other is what fellow researchers in the field term ‘noise’. Noise is the “unwanted variability in human judgements of the same problem”, and it is just as problematic as bias.

Also Read: Building a diverse and inclusive workplace sidestepping tokenism

Such variability leads to injustices, varied hazards, and multiple kinds of costs. Biases can shape a company or industry’s culture and norms if left unchecked. Other research has found this prevalent in various fields, from military intelligence analysis to actuarial science and virtually every industry imaginable, even one as critical as medicine.

The error equation

According to Sibony, errors can be mathematically calculated. Without getting too technical, this essentially means that the combination of both bias and noise leads to making errors, and the reduction of either has an equal impact on reducing error.

Bias and noise exist virtually everywhere, and technically, the only way to eliminate them both is to remove the use of human judgements. However, this is not tenable for myriad reasons, especially since the human element still matters in many areas concerning people (e.g., a medical diagnosis).

Noise and bias in business

A model on how statistical noise and statistical bias affect error in judgment.

As a result of noise and bias, professionals in critical industries can make important and even outrageous errors. You can see these errors of judgement in areas such as recruitment and human resources, marketing, and even when choosing which companies to invest in.

For example, a popular method of judging candidates and hiring them is based not on objective data but on the gut instinct of the interviewer. Unfortunately, such decisions can lead to bad outcomes and incur extra costs for the business.

The next best thing would be for humans to learn how to reduce errors in their decision-making, especially with cognitive biases.

Decision hygiene factors

How exactly do cognitive biases and noise affect entrepreneurs, and more importantly, how can we reduce decision-making errors within the business landscape?

Sibony references decision hygiene factors, a matrix comprising four noise prevention techniques to help make better judgements and decisions.

  • Aggregate

In some specific situations, a diversity of input can be useful in the decision-making process, so long as the inputs are independently derived. aggregating independent inputs and then averaging them out would statistically reduce noise.

  • Use relative measures, not absolute

Chances are, when people describe things or situations, they will use the same terminologies despite meaning different things. This can be problematic if two people use the word “great” to describe what sort of potential investment needs to have, but  Person A means 30 per cent while Person B means it is in the seven per cent.

Also Read: Why we cannot talk of diversity without inclusion

Since absolute measures can be ambiguous, it would be better to rank or measure items or situations against others. For example, before deciding to invest in a start-up that, say, sounds great on paper, compare them to other start-ups similar in scale and size for their relative performances.

  • Structure your judgements

Break judgements down into separate components or dimensions and use quantitative and objective measures to assess and/or analyse sub-components of the judgement you will be making, and score them against a frame of reference.

For example, you can structure an interview process to have several stages where specific competencies are assessed (such as through scoring) and compared to other candidates similar to them (relative measuring).

You can then aggregate independent inputs and average their score or performance.

  • Keep intuition at bay

Humans are generally susceptible to cognitive biases such as selective attention, confirmation bias, and selective recall.

This can make you over-focus on some types of information and overlook other relevant ones, leading to terrifying outcomes. Just ask Brandon Mayfield, who was wrongly detained for the Madrid bombings.

“The key point here is that you don’t want to know what you don’t want to know,” quips Sibony, “knowing too much, even accurate information, can mislead you”.

Manage the information process to make it difficult to form an intuition too early. Although it is tempting to engage in intuitive judgements, early use of intuition only serves to add more noise.

Final thoughts

Indeed, many people think they are very objective and impartial, especially when their professional judgements are solicited. However, as illustrated, erroneous judgements and decisions can lead to disastrous consequences.

As executives, the company and the organisation depend on not just the knowledge and experience but, more importantly, the sound judgement and decision-making skills of executives.

It pays to be cognisant of how we may stumble at different stages and work towards strengthening noise-prevention efforts for the health and success of the organisation.

Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. Share your opinion by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic

Join our e27 Telegram groupFB community, or like the e27 Facebook page

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IDG Capital backs blockchain firm Metain to make real estate investment affordable in Vietnam

Metain, a blockchain-empowered co-investment platform focusing on real estate, has secured an undisclosed investment from IDG Capital Vietnam.

Per a statement, this partnership is expected to foster the development of NFT real estate and attract more global investors to invest in blockchain-powered proptech in Vietnam.

Real estate investment promises a very high ROI with the least risk among other investment types (stocks, crypto, saving, open-ended funds, etc.). However, its characteristic creates high entry barriers for individual investors, including big investment capital and an inconvenient, time-intensive multiple-transaction process.

Meatin makes investing in income-producing assets affordable, convenient, safe, transparent, and trustworthy for investors. The platform aims to grow the Vietnam real estate investment market and improve its accessibility using blockchain technology to complement, not replace reliable approaches.

The startup targets middle-income customers.

Also Read: These 21 Web3 startups prove why Vietnam is world’s most surprising crypto hotspot

Duc Tran, General Partner at IDG Capital, said: “Income-producing property is real estate you invest in to make money from current rental payments, appreciation in market price, or adding value with additional revenue streams. Last but not least, their aims are only around Central Business District properties whose evaluations are the most stable with an all-time uptrend, compared to other options.”

“With the high security, instantaneous settlement, transparent and seamless transaction process, blockchain, smart contract and NFT technology are transforming the real estate industry and will become the key trend in the next decades. The next challenges would be how proptech investors’ pennies with a reliable setup and how to grow these pennies via choosing the right investment assets to acquire. And we believe that we are on the right track of that,” said Nhan Tran, CEO of Metain.

Echelon 2022 aims to provide intimate and focused discussions on key topics and business matching services to facilitate business-driven connections during the two-day event. e27will curate and invite key stakeholders of startups, investors, corporates, and ecosystem enablers to drive towards fruitful business outcomes at Echelon.

The 2022 Echelon edition will be co-located with SWITCH at Resorts World Sentosa from 27 to 28 October 2022. Learn more here. 

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The thesis for cross-border e-commerce in Southeast Asia

Supply chains in Southeast Asia are famously broken. As small businesses are digitising, they are trying to find new sales channels to generate income by exporting beyond their home markets.

Both within Southeast Asia and outside, demand for locally produced products is rising. Buyers are moving away from China as a primary (manufacturing) source and starting to appreciate the quality, prices and diversity of SEA.

However, it’s not smooth sailing yet, and there’s a large opportunity for service providers and marketplaces to jump into the space and address the voids.

The problems with cross-border e-commerce

  • Regulators are not catching up yet, and SEA is far from a freedom of goods market’ (such as the US or Europe). Hence all sorts of compliance issues (taxes, import licenses, etc.) that restrict (the ease of) import and export have historically not been addressed.
  • Import and export regulations are different for various product categories, adding to the complexity.
  • SMEs are getting the demand but don’t have access to the distribution supply chain (DHL and FedEx won’t always entertain SMEs for various reasons) to reach their customers hassle-free yet.
  • Existing distributor supply chains are closed and typically demand volume which is not suitable for most SMEs.
  • Existing marketplaces (such as Lazada and Amazon) focus on sourcing from China or only satisfy supply and demand in their respective local markets.
  • Global risks in the last few years are causing reversed globalisation trends.

The need for solutions

I don’t see regulators catching up fast enough, so we probably should not bank on them to provide a solution for e-commerce in the region.

Innovation is likely to come from startups that, in their core focus on:

  • Taking on the compliance burden while offering SMEs a hassle-free import and export experience.
  • Offer SMEs a product that offers a quick and easy way to ship products to the buyer’ market (regardless the importing jurisdiction).
  • Generate and open up new demand, promote SEA products and build an infrastructure that supports lower (minimum volume) so that small buyers can be reached.

Challenges faced by startups and the massive opportunity

With HH VC Investments, we have looked at several promising players in the space within Southeast Asia.

These are the main challenges these players are trying to overcome:

  • There are a lot of moving parts to make this work. Leading to the risk of loss of focus for (typically) financially strapped startups.
  • They must ensure sufficient and diversified supply is available for the demand to be satisfied. This is the typical catch-22 for any marketplace, but now with the added layer of cross-border demand.
  • They need to leverage existing or generate new demand across different markets with each its own culture, channels and habits.
  • They need to build or use existing supply chain infrastructure in various jurisdictions.
  • They need to navigate the (sometimes very) complex compliance frameworks of different countries

Just within SEA alone, there’s an ever-increasing middle class that is willing to spend on and try new products from their neighbouring countries.

Final thoughts

There’s a huge opportunity for startups to focus on cross-border e-commerce. This is simply given the sheer number of ever-increasing middle-class buyers that are willing to spend on and try new products from neighbouring countries in SEA.

But it’s still early days.

New entrants will be able to create a huge barrier to entry as these players wouldn’t just be building the infrastructure but also the compliance knowledge in-house.

Those that can overcome the challenges and offer a seamless product will be able to crack the space and have the potential to grow towards the size of the likes of Lazada and Alibaba.

Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. Share your opinion by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic

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What makes Bee Kheng Tay a remarkable leader

At e27, we are kickstarting a new articles series to know startup professionals and their lives beyond working hours. 

Bee Kheng Tay is the President of Cisco Systems in Southeast Asia and is responsible for driving the networking products giant’s profitable growth. She also leads its go-to-market operations across the ten countries in the region.

Tay brings more than two decades of experience in the enterprise technology industry across Asia-Pacific and Japan. She is a seasoned leader with a proven track record in building innovative sales organisations.

Tay is passionate about encouraging women to pursue a career in STEM. Outside the world of IT, she has a keen interest in history, psychology, philosophy, and science.

In this candid interview, Tay talks about his personal life, professional life, and hobbies.

Excerpts:

How would you explain what you do to a 5-year-old?

I work for a technology company that builds the internet to connect people, things, and data to make the world a better place. My team helps businesses in Southeast Asia use technology to transform the way we work and play, scale their organisations and offer better services to people.

What has been the biggest highlight/challenge of your career so far?

Like many other women, balancing and navigating the demands of my career and parenthood is challenging. It took me some time, but I have realised that these different aspects of my life are not at odds with each other. Instead, they complement and enrich my life. Staying present and focusing on the task at hand when the time calls for it has been a valuable skill for me.

Once I overcame that mental hurdle, I could accomplish many things. Some of my career highlights include becoming the first female Managing Director for Cisco Singapore and Brunei and the first female President for Cisco ASEAN, all while bringing my two children up as a single mother. In and outside of work, I continue to champion women in tech and advocate for a hybrid work model that empowers employees to work from anywhere and juggle their different roles at home and at work.

How do you envision the next five years of your career?

The tech industry holds tremendous potential to help bridge the digital divide and power sustainable innovation. Cisco’s purpose is to power an inclusive future for all. With the opportunities around us, I genuinely believe that technology is one industry that plays a crucial role in bridging the social divide in the world. This will not happen overnight, and I want to drive this momentum in ASEAN as I grow my career in IT with Cisco over the next few years.

Also Read: What makes Desmond Yong thrive in ambiguous situations

I look forward to working with my team to ensure that people and communities in the region can access the information they need seamlessly and securely and enjoy meaningful digital experiences powered by innovative, intuitive, and automated technology.

What are some of your favourite work tools?

I love that collaboration, like many other technologies, isn’t just a business for us. It helps us power our entire organisation.

Especially in a hybrid normal, it is understandable that employees feel distant from not seeing their team and colleagues in the office daily. However, with collaboration tools like Webex, we can reimagine the employee experience so it is engaging and consistent for our people, no matter where they connect.

We have designed Webex to level the playing field for all participants and enhance their engagement with features such as noise cancellation and voice enhancement technology, as well as real-time transcriptions and translations.

These not only facilitate and enhance communication but also ensure that the meeting experience is inclusive for everyone regardless of working locations and circumstances.

For us, inclusivity is more than a physical location. It supports your work style, whether you are an introvert or extrovert, digital native or occasional user, frontline worker, or remote knowledge worker. One of my favourite functionalities on Webex is People Insights, which provides insights into how employees spend their time and who they engage with most often.

The insights can only be seen by the employee and no one else, and this helps them uncover blind spots in how they work to empower them to stay more engaged, be better teammates, reduce potential fatigue and enhance well-being. This has helped me customise interactions with colleagues and plan my day to get the most out of work.

What’s something about you or your job that would surprise us?

Despite my years in technology, I have always gravitated toward the arts. I am a voracious reader, and my favourite authors are Leo Tolstoy and Fyodor Dostoevsky.

Over the years, I have also developed an appreciation for art in its different forms. I’m not an art connoisseur, but I enjoy collecting and displaying paintings and art pieces in my home. Ironically, despite my inclination toward the arts, my favourite model is the Standard Model of Particles Physics, which describes the basic building blocks of all known matter. I am full of contradictions!

Do you prefer WFH or WFO or hybrid?

Cisco has always been a big proponent of hybrid work and is here to stay. As a leader, I have seen how hybrid work has helped achieve the fullest potential of employees by empowering them to be their best selves with the flexibility and convenience to work from anywhere and in a way that best works for them.

We are seeing improvements in overall employee performance, work-life balance, and well-being for employees not just in Cisco but across organisations in Singapore and globally.

Also Read: What Pierluigi Cau loves most about working at GitHub

64 per cent of regional employees have shared that hybrid work has improved their productivity. As a result, they are taking more time for themselves, and 80 per cent say that their total well-being across various aspects of social, emotional, physical, financial, and mental has improved.

But challenges remain in fostering an inclusive environment and a sense of belonging for every employee. This fundamentally requires a rethink of various factors that underpin successful hybrid work, including inclusive culture, employee experience, and well-being enabled by technology and led by trust and empathetic leadership.

As leaders, we need to incorporate empathy, active listening, flexibility, and continuous learning in how we lead and engage with people. For example, Cisco conducts Quarterly Engagement Pulses to evaluate and spark conversations about how each employee feels about their team, the work environment, and themselves.

All employees take part in weekly check-ins with their managers that allow employees to have a focused conversation about their work sentiments, priorities, and strengths. This includes what they loved and loathed doing and the support they need from their managers each week.

What would you tell your younger self?

I would tell my younger self that everything is possible. You just need to want it hard enough, be passionate enough, and set goals to guide you consciously and unconsciously during your journey. But don’t be too hard on yourself and enjoy the journey. Beyond that, it is about believing in yourself and recognising that challenging times too will pass.

Can you describe yourself in three words?

No fear, no guilt, no regret.

What are you most likely to be doing if not working?

I love to read. I am very interested in particle physics, psychology, and philosophy. In my free time, I read non-fiction books on these topics.

Earlier this year, I set myself a target to read the top 100 books of all time on the TheGreatestBooks.org site.

What are you currently reading/listening to/watching?

I am currently in the “Great English Writer” phase. The book I am currently reading is Great Expectations, written by Charles Dickens. I am learning more about William Shakespeare and politics, which extends to watching lectures, reading novels, and watching plays on Macbeth, Hamlet, Henry V, Julius Caesar, Tempest, Merchant of Venice, and Twelfth Night.

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Hybrid work technology startup FlexOS secures US$1M in Do Ventures-led round

FlexOS Co-Founder and CEO Daan van Rossum

Singapore-based FlexOS, which helps companies manage hybrid teams and offices in a data-driven, employee-centric way, announced today it closed an oversubscribed US$1 million seed round.

Led by Do Ventures, the round was joined by VIK Partners, Vulpes Ventures, Hustle Fund, Wing Vasiksiri (iSeed SEA), and GK Plug and Play Ventures, joined.

Former GoJek VP Windy Natriavi, renowned management consultant Dr Ramesh Ramachandra, Jeff Lonsdale, Julian Low, Kheng Lian, Marc Gottesman, and Amarit “Aim” Charoenphan also co-invested.

Established by Daan van Rossum, Greg Marschall, and Jonah Levey, FlexOS offers companies data-driven tools to engage and retain hybrid teams and operate hybrid offices.

According to research from McKinsey, 90 per cent of companies will switch to hybrid work, combining work from home and work from the office.

In Southeast Asia, hybrid work is often not even a choice for employers.

Also Read: What makes Bee Kheng Tay a remarkable leader

In Singapore, two in five employees will not accept a job if their employer doesn’t provide them with flexibility for when and where to work. In Vietnam, only 9 per cent of Gen Z wants to work in an office full-time. In Indonesia, 83.5 per cent prefer to work in a hybrid mode. Their employers experience challenges when introducing hybrid work.

According to FlexOS, companies must introduce, measure, and optimise hybrid’ policies.’ They must redesign their offices and operate them differently to provide on-demand spaces to focus, meet, and collaborate. Most importantly, they need to be more intentional about employee engagement. A vast body of research shows that connection, community, and company culture suffer when people do not work together in person.

FlexOS supports those companies and their employees. It does so with gamified office check-ins, desk and meeting room bookings, and up to ten monthly events and activities tailored to employees’ unique interests.

Echelon 2022 aims to provide intimate and focused discussions on key topics and business matching services to facilitate business-driven connections during the two-day event. e27will curate and invite key stakeholders of startups, investors, corporates, and ecosystem enablers to drive towards fruitful business outcomes at Echelon.

The 2022 Echelon edition will be co-located with SWITCH at Resorts World Sentosa from 27 to 28 October 2022. Learn more here. 

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